The consumption of electricity had in 2024 a different behavior than other years with record demands, mainly in the first semester, influenced by several factors such as heat waves and economy growth.
At the end of the year consumption grew 6.76% in 2024, reaching 13,397.08 Gigavatios Hora (GWh) which is the total energy demanded by the interconnected national system (SNI).
While the demand for power (maximum demand at a specific time) registered a record reaching 2 thousand 121.8 megawatts (MW) in May 2024, which represents an increase of 7.70%, compared to the maximum of the previous year.
Jorge Álvarez, AMM manager, explained that historically the country brought an average annual growth of 3% to 3.5%. Aspect observed in statistics from 2011 to 2019, with growth that went from 2.10% to 5.73%.
However, from the first year of the Covid-19 Pandemia, the behavior has been more variable. In 2020 he decreased at -0.83%; With high recovery in the 2021 with growth of 8.21%, derived from that many productive activities and economic growth were resumed.
Meanwhile in 2022, 2.39%grew, and in 2023, 6.11%.
The growth of consumption and demand during 2024, with respect to 2023, was mainly observed in the first part of the year, between January and June. For example, energy generation grows 27.1% in April, while in February and March it was recorded at 17.7% and 20.2%, respectively.
Subsequently, the growth rate began to decrease, and from August to December the generation kept casualties between -3% to -7.8%.
This except in October 2024, in which it rose 7.3%, in this case a recovery could be reflected with respect to the demand experienced in the same month of 2023 when several days of blockages and suspension of activities for demonstrations were observed claiming to recognize the results of the General elections held that year.
In the end, the electricity generation was in a balance at the end of the year with a growth of 7.32%, Which was also higher than other years, reaching 13 thousand 117.4 GWh.
Among the factors that promoted the growth of consumption and demand, the AMMA executive mentioned at least four: The high climatic temperatures or heat waves that were experienced since 2023 and affected the first semester of 2024 which resulted in more use of fans, air conditioners for homes and offices, in addition to industrial machinery or equipment also demanded more use of cooling equipment to operate.
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In addition, the country has been changing and now they exist More apartment and offices buildings, and where more air conditioning tends to be required.
The other factor is the good growth rate that economy has registered and its different productive activities.
Also, Álvarez mentioned that there is what is called “the phenomenon of screens”, because now in many places Instead of traditional labels they use screens with information, menus, advertising, even in advertising fences.
It declared an emergency in 2024
The electricity sector was declared in emergency in March 2024, for several months, derived from the lack of rain and the record increase in electricity demand. Álvarez commented, on that occasion, that derived from the El Niño phenomenon there was less rain than usual since 2023, so in the first months the flows were smaller compared to other years, which lowered the hydroelectric generation.
Read more in: declare state of emergency in the Guatemalan electrical system by El Niño phenomenon
Of the total electricity generated of 13 thousand 117.4 GWh, Most were covered with hydroelectric plants reaching 5,334.1 GWh, However, the figure represented a decline of -4.30% compared to 2023, the contribution of biomass (generated by sugar mills) remained stable with 1,636.5.
While thermal resources reported considerable increases, These had to be summoned with more contribution to the decline in water levels for hydroelectric plants. The coal generation grew 16.70% and represented the second resource that contributed the most with 2,581,4 GWh, in addition to oil derivatives, the oil coke grew 32.3% reaching 1,656.3 GWh and the bunker with 866.88 GWh grew 53.2% .
Both Álvarez and Luis Ortiz, president of the National Electric Power Commission (CNEE) agreed that The critical stage was solved in the country without the need to reach rationing.
However, more thermal generation should be convened and exported for several weeks to Central America, maintaining the prioritization of national demand depending on the availability of energy in the country.
The import did not grow, since Mexico also limited its exports to the drought they were also experiencing. The country can export a maximum of 240 MW but for several weeks it could only import 120 MW because it is a firm contract that a company has from abroad.
Exports closed the year at 969.5 GWh, a fall of -3.6% compared to 2023, while imports were 1,793.9 GWh, a decrease of -4.1%.
“Compared to other countries that had to ration energy, it went pretty good. While it is true, we had to cut exports and at some point there was nervousness that, if we were going to be able to pass the demand or not, but nUnca we arrive at a ration as such from Guatemala’s demand ”, Álvarez said by explaining that based on the emergency agreement, generators that will be provided with the necessary fuels may be required.
Those who compensated for the fall of the generation of hydroelectric plants were the thermal generation with coal, bunker and oil coke, But there is an interesting phenomenon since in the first semester the hydroelectric generation was scarce, but in the second semester it was compensated, and In the end in the full year the fall was barely de-4.3%.
By 2025 a better hydroelectric generation behavior is expected since the winter of 2024 was more copious so the flows have been higher.
Recently, the Private Institute for Climate Change Research (ICC), indicated that the long periods of drought in 2023 and the beginning of 2024, generated water stress and thermal stress due to high temperatures, which affected the development of plants and crops, And the level of the flows of the rivers, however, by 2025 the conditions are better.
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Although the girl’s phenomenon was expected to enter in July or August of 2024, her income was late until December, but the behavior of the rain helped to have caudales of higher rivers, improving the conditions, according to that entity. It was added that the girl’s phenomenon will be short, since it began in December 2024, It is reflected with some rains and cold fronts, and it is expected that it ends in March 2025. Then a neutral term enters and The rain is expected to start between April and May.
Pric stability
In electricity, various prices are handled, including social and non -social regulated rates, and spot or market market prices without contract.
Ortiz has recently explained that Prices for households and other distributors users have remained stable since these distributors have medium -term contracts where prices are established.
The CNEE decided to keep the electricity rates stable that year.
At the end of 2024 the non -social rate (segment that includes the consumption of 300 kilowatts hour (kWh) which is 6% of users of the country) were in Q1.46 the KWh for users of Guatemala electricity company, SA (EEGSA ). Q2.13, respectively. In this case, prices are lower between a penny, nine cents, seven cents of Quetzal, respectively, compared to the closing of 2023.
The social rate closed the year 2024 in Q1.37 per kWh for Eegsa and Deocsa and Deorsa in Q2.11 and Q2.04 per KWh respectively. Prices are lower in a penny and nine cents of Quetzal, with respect to those in force in December 2023.
The growth of electricity generation capacity has already stagnated future can affect the supply if it is not still being invested in the sector warns Cabi’s study, while experts in energy, economy and competitiveness gave their point of view @prensa_libre pic.twitter.com/kdsqBI9VHC
– Rosa María Bolaños (@Rollanos_PL) January 19, 2024
This segment is made up of around 94% of the country’s users, some 3.6 million families according to CNEE data. Within this group, users with lower consumption are applied an extraordinary subsidy through the index, so that they pay less than that amount.
In the case of the spot that refers to the purchase and sale market without contract, Álvarez explained that it is a wholesale market indicator that will not necessarily have to do with the distributors’ fee. This is because distributors, due to the requirement of the law, must have contracts to guarantee the supply and prices have stability while the contract is in force.
Spot price normally does not affect contract purchases And that is why distributors for long periods manage to maintain significant stability in the rate, he added.
On the other hand, the spot or purchases-sale without contract is more volatilesince if you are a great user and buy in this market, there would be a price oscillation. In 2024, for example, in May the price of said market reached US $ 214 per MW, an increase of US $ 57.52 or 26.8% compared to the same month of 2023.
For six months of the 2024, spot prices were higher than in the year before that, and at average, on average it was at US $ 116.46, that is 9.7% more.