The tariffs that President Donald Trump promotes are focused so far in countries that are large suppliers of a wide range of goods for the United States and with Superavit in the commercial balance. For that reason, Guatemala might not be in the sights to apply those measures and so far there is no official notification.
The Minister of Economy, Gabriela García, said in Congress on March 5 that Guatemala has not received any notification from that country and considered that the northern triangle is a key trade partner for that country.
Garcia added that they have analyzed several scenarios, although he avoided giving details, and that the Free Trade Agreement between Central America, the Dominican Republic and the United States, known as DR-CAFTA, is being reviewed.
There is still no official information on the part of the authorities of that country regarding the tariffs announced for the importation of agricultural products to that country, so there is no details about how this measure will be implemented, said the Vice Minister of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economy of Guatemala (Mineco), Héctor Marroquín.
While referring to the impact that Guatemala could have for the reciprocal measures, also announced by the government of President Donald Trump, the Deputy Minister explained that, within the framework of the Free Trade Agreement with the United States, Central America and the Dominican Republic (DR-CAFTA) there is already free trade between the two countries, so they are not paid tariff rights for imports.
The official mentioned that the United States government established a period of 180 days to make the evaluation for reciprocal measures, and an official notification has not yet been received in this regard.
The FTA and the new reciprocal or product tariffs
Asked about what will happen with the FTA with the United States, which already has a 99% deducation of products, to be implemented new tariffs such as those announced by the vice minister explained that according to the memorandum published by the White House on February 13, 2025, the authorities of that country are ordered to develop a comprehensive plan to restore equity in the commercial relations of the United States and counter reciprocal.
In this regard, Guatemala and the United States, under the framework of DR-CAFTA, enjoy free trade in the commercial exchange of merchandise, added Marroquín.
Reciprocity includes internal taxes or taxes
The Guatemalan Vice Minister explains the issue of reciprocity measures, which not only reaches tariffs but other charges.
The US government memorandum states that the reciprocity measure includes the internal taxes or taxes of the countries.
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Marroquín adds that these charges are not regulated by international law and are alien to the principle of non-discrimination that promulgates the World Trade Organization (WTO).
In the case of Guatemala, the Value Added Tax (VAT) applies to all products (national and imported), its application does not discriminate due to origin either by origin of the product or the raw material, and complies with international standards. Also, additionally the country applies specific taxes to a list of products.
“Guatemala values its commercial alliance with the USA. And trusts that, through dialogue, a relationship based on mutual benefits, respect for internal policies and shared growth will be strengthened,” so you will work together to find solutions that promote the increase in exports, and that protect our producers and consumers, Moroccan said.
The current situation of the FTA
With the FTA, 100% of US exports enter Guatemala without tariffs.
While Guatemala eliminated tariffs for 99.9% of the products from the United States.
White corn and sugar are the two merchandise for which Guatemala did not eliminate the import tariff, and in this case for both products he negotiated an import quota as a preferential treatment for imports of American origin. By 2025 the White Corn Import contingent has a quota of 28 thousand metric tons (TM) and for sugar there is an export contingent to the United States of 54 thousand 520 TM.
On Wednesday, February 26, the Deputy Minister responded in a meeting with journalists that application of reciprocal measures is under evaluation by the trade authorities of that country such as the Office of the United States Commercial Representative (USTR) and the Department of Commerce.
He added on that occasion that it is a unilateral decision of the United States government and, the evaluation will be based on the capacities and powers that each of the agencies or departments of that country has to carry it out.
“I think the important thing here is that we know the result of the evaluation in a timely manner when this corresponds and depending on that to act,” added the vice minister.
What impact could you have?
According to Enrique Laces, former Minister of Economy, and current director of the Guatemalan Chamber of Food and Beverage, reciprocity is the basis of international commercial relations and defines the balance of advantages and power in these relations.
However, he added, with the current Trump government administration, a new modality of reciprocity is being developed in the United States, since when talking about reciprocal measures it does not include only tariffs, but other aspects that international commercial law does not regulate or has not been within its competence, such as internal taxes, commercial measures and economic dispositions applied for each country without discrimination, for reasons of its economic, fiscal or developmental policy.
Taking this into account, the reciprocity of that country would apply to everything that puts disadvantage to the products and entrepreneurs of the United States, in order not only to match import tariffs, but other taxes, among these the Value Added Tax (VAT), specific taxes, import regulation measures, tax exemptions, subsidies programs and others added.
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LACS mentioned some examples, if commercial reciprocity dispositions were completed towards Guatemala as the one mentioned by the United States: a 12% rate referring to internal VAT would be applied to all products that enter the market of that American country, and selectively alcoholic beverages would have to pay another percentage for the distribution tax that exists in Guatemala, among other cases.
It may be that import tariffs do not change because they are already eliminated reciprocally by the FTA but the broader measures of reciprocity would cause a generalized readjustment of commercial relations, with implications not yet measures that would include not only commercial and capital flows, supply chains, tax revenues and industrial development programs and investment attraction, which would have to be redefined.
Rubén Morales, former Minister of Economy and part of the TLC negotiator team, considers that reciprocal tariffs would not be imposed on Guatemala because the president of the United States is being very selective regarding which countries would be applied, in addition, among other reasons mentions that most tariffs for various products are zero; Although VAT is paid, it considers that it is not relevant, and that the country has no commercial surplus with the United States.
According to Morales, that country has mentioned that they would apply it to the European Union, because import tariffs in that region are higher than theirs for their mutual trade products.
“What Trump is looking for, according to what he transmits in his speech is to reduce its commercial deficit because, for example, the European Union has a surplus with respect to the US.”
Guatemala imported from the United States during 2024, goods for US $ 10,544.4 million, while exports were US $ 4,650.3 million.