A price reduction cycle to consumers was recorded in Guatemala in which it had a greater incidence the housing divisionexplained by in the restoration of the subsidy to the social rate of electrical energy by the competent authority, which during January did not apply it to the beneficiaries, but pressed in the rise the indicator.
The inflationary rhythm In February it was 1.79%, resulting in decrease compared to January when it was 2.19%; That means there was a slowdown in prices. While the monthly inflation was negative in -0.25% and the accumulated was 0.25%, as announced in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that the National Statistics Institute (INE) elaborates every month.
The INE report occurs in a context when the vice president of the Republic, Karin Herrera, required an official program to several institutions to define a strategy against the high prices facing consumers, the constant complaints of housewives and heads of household about the increase in products and goods of the basic food basket, last February.
Then a program to counteract prices in the economy that will be known in the following days is expected for the state part, as well as the specific actions to carry out in household well -being.
Chain effect
In February, two increases in the prosecuting cylinder prices were reported, which is the main input, so the pound went from Q4.40 to Q4.80, which is a rise of Q0.40.
These increases automatically moved to food time outside the home, which in this case registers simple lunch, for the use of the energy product for food preparation.
For example, in dining rooms in the historic center of Guatemala City, simple lunches went from Q25 to Q30; others from Q35 to Q40 and others from Q45 to Q55 as a reference, according to the establishment.
In other places prices are maintained, but the consumer portion of the ingredients is reduced.
The same circumstance occurred with sweet bread, which uses and uses gas for the production process, which is another product that records positive incidence.
Current prices
When the gas pound is located in Q4.80 with the market adjustment in February, it is multiplied by cylinder weight.
The pound of Q4.40 went to Q4.80, which represents an increase of Q0.40 per pound or 9%.
- 25 pound cylinder: Q120
- 35 pound cylinder: Q168
- 100 pound cylinder: Q480
According to official records and statistics, this is the gas market in Guatemala:
- The 25 -pound cylinder is the one with the highest consumption in Guatemala, and it is estimated that the demand is 42 thousand cylinders.
- In December of each year there is an increase in the consumption of LPG in homes, which goes from 8% to 10% on average, by seasonal effect.
- In the country, 66 product packing plants operate.
- Companies from the United States and Mexico are the main suppliers of LPG for Guatemala.
Variation and monthly incidence
Of the 13 spending divisions that make up the CPI, housing registered a lower negative monthly incidence of -0.20% and food -015%. While the transport division registered a positive incidence of 0.04% and 0.03% restaurants.
The IPC report underlines that the products that most positive incidence (increases) registered were propane gas in 0.09%cylinder; gasoline 0.03%; lemons 0.01%; sweet bread 0.01% and simple lunch without meat 0.01%.
While products with the most negative incidence (low) were consumption of electric power -0.30%; Tomatoes -0.05%; onions -0.03%; chicken eggs -0.02% and tortillas -0.02%.
Although the inflationary rhythm nationwide was 1.79%in February, region VII that is Huehuetenango and Quiché was 3.03%, followed by region II Alta Verapaz with 2.74%. Region III which is Chiquimula and Izabal presented the lowest inflationary rate, of 1.06% cites the document.
What explains it?
By consulting the monetary authorities about these results of the CPI, they presented several technical criteria.
“The monthly inflation of February 2025 was negative -0.25%, which makes the inflationary rate decreased from 2.19% in January to 1.79% in February. The result was below what was expected by the Central Bank in its analysis, ”said Álvaro González Ricci President of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat).
He clarified that the two spending divisions that had an upward effect in February were transport, due to the increase in gasoline and propane gas cylinder; and that of restaurants, due to the increase in food consumed outside the home.
While, the decreases observed with a downward effect were in: food, due to the decreases in tortillas, eggs, onions and tomato; And for the housing division, for the decrease in the price of the electricity service, “given the willingness to reestablish the subsidy to the social rate of the electricity service. This last factor being the most important in the decrease of inflation in March, ”he insisted.
What is the perspective?
To the consultation on the risks of inflation in that it could be accelerated in the following months, he replied: “Inflation since the last quarter of last year has been influenced down due to supply factors that are usually temporary, especially food of agricultural and gasoline foods.”
Then, inflation without those clashes (underlying inflation) is located in around 3.8%. “For this reason we estimate that inflation at the end of 2025 would be placed by 4%, just in the central value of the goal determined by the Monetary Board,” he concluded.