The possible effects on the world and local economy for commercial and migratory policy in the United States, It already begins to generate different analysis and the members of the Technical Commission of Public Finance (CTFP)which began to make the first technical recommendations.
For this year, the amount of tax collection for Q108 thousand 737 million that will serve to finance the state budget, according to the 01-2025 Act of the aforementioned Commission that is made up of representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (BANGUAT), Superintendence of Tax Administration (SAT) and Ministry of Finance (Minfin) is maintained.
However, the first key messages shown in the published document are already launched.
Recommendations are left in an act
In one of the recommendations of the Act, it exposes the following: “Uncertainty persists regarding possible modifications of the United States commercial and immigration policy.”
It highlights the importance of continuous monitoring of the evolution of international markets and to the main internal economic variables.
In this regard, one of the concerns that have arisen during the first quarter, is for the performance of family remittances associated with United States immigration policy in the short and medium term, added the behavior of exports in a context of international turbulence for tariff decisions.
In simple words it is said that these external situations can impact collection and public spending.
Direct or indirect effects
Free press He consulted Erick Echeverría Mazariegos, mayor to collection of the Superintendence of Tax Administration (SAT) who participated in said technical session and provided his position.
Echeverría said that the technical suggestion is oriented to the monitoring of external factors that can influence collection and affect public spending -Exjection of the budget.
“It is not a warning, but a technical suggestion oriented to the monitoring of external factors that can influence collection and affect public spending”
Érick Echeverría Mazariegos, mayor of collection
He stressed that it is important to remember that tax collection depends, to a large extent, on the behavior of economic activity. And in this sense, immigration and tariff policies adopted internationally can to some extent generate direct or indirect effects on world trade and end up affecting the national economy.
When consulting what does this technical note tell us? Echeverría Mazariegos reiterated that the CTFP should remain attentive to the evolution of the world economy, especially given changes in tariff and migratory policies, since there are no recent background of transformations of this magnitude.
“Although Guatemala is not a direct part of these measures, indirect effects may occur that could influence some sectors of the economy. Therefore, it is important to carry out constant monitoring and anticipate their possible consequences,” said the mayor.
On the projected goals of tax collection for this year, the mayor concluded that the tax revenues provided for in the collection goal to the provisions of the Goals Convention are ratified.
Interpretation
Economist Hugo Maul, an analyst at the National Economic Research Center (one hundred), considers that the CTFP does well to argue that uncertainty persists, because the United States authorities have been quite variable in the decision making of commercial policy.
In this regard, he clarified that Guatemala is not at a level of greater uncertainty that Mexico has, which is much more integrated with the US, and commercial exchange figures benefit the neighboring country more in terms of the balance of imports and exports.
In that sense, Guatemala is smaller “to be a commercial concern, but after the visit of the Framework Secretary of Rubio Rubio last February, the agreements that were carried out with the current government and commitments with the body of engineers of the United States Army plus the migratory commitments assume that they are with a good relationship with the US authorities”.
“Guatemala is not at a level of greater uncertainty that Mexico has, which is much more integrated with the US.
Hugo Maul, one hundred analyst
“As long as that is maintained, I don’t see that there could be a negative effect. In case it happens that there is an event that affects that relationship, it would be necessary to see,” he said.
In the collection part there are basic pillars that is the importation of the USA, and it is not projected that there is an important fall this year, as the percentage value of remittances is maintained the previous year with slight growth (US $ 21 thousand 510 million) and uncertainty is the behavior of the indicator as a source of import financing, since the economy is growing at its average level.
“I am starting that Guatemala is not going to be harmed in terms of remittances in a very drastic policy of returnees and exports are not subject to the payment of any tax that do not contribute to collection,” concluded the representative of the hundred.
SHOW IN THE PRESECT
This week the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has reviewed itsS Baja economic growth forecasts Due to the effect that is causing the commercial war unleashed by the US president, Donald Trump, and with the tariff measures announced by the great victims will be Canada and, especially Mexico, in addition to the United States themselves.