This year, the homicide rate until February is 16.6 per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the National Economic Research Center (one hundred), which represents an increase of 3.1 % compared to the same period of 2024.
According to one hundred data, based on figures from the National Civil Police (PNC), in January 2024 there were 227 dead, compared to the 252 recorded in January this year; While in February 2024, 156 were reported, compared to 252 this year.
Acts of violence such as the one in Amatitlán last week, where a man was killed inside his vehicle, have caused shock because the crime was recorded by video surveillance cameras and circulated on social networks.
On Friday night, the relief bodies reported three armed attacks in different places, which left three men in 19, 24 and 28 years. The events occurred on 23 avenue and 21 street in La Palmita neighborhood, zone 5; on Avenida Reforma and 1st. Calle, zone 10, and at kilometer 15 of the road to El Salvador. That same night, in a vacant lot of the Azacualpilla village, Palencia, the body of a man was located.
On Saturday night, March 22, the police authorities also reported that subjects fired in a sector of Zone 8 capital, in the area where the procession of Jesús Nazareno de la Paz and Virgen de Dolores de Don Bosco passed. No injuries or captures were reported. However, the fact caused panic among the activity attendees, who ran to seek protection. In Coatepeque, Quetzaltenango, an armed attack was also reported against a man in front of his home.
Homicide rate
According to one hundred statistics, until February the homicide rate was maintained at 16.6 per 100,000 inhabitants, but in February 2024 the rate was 16.1. These figures indicate that there was an increase in homicidal violence, said Walter Menchú, analyst of the said thought tank.
The Minister of the Interior, Francisco Jiménez, acknowledged that homicides increased between January and February of this year, mainly during the weekends and said they work to contain them.
“This weekend they went down considerably, I do not have the data, but we are going to work so that the trend does not continue to increase.”
According to Jiménez, 60% or 70% of homicides are people who have a criminal record, and the hypothesis points to that there are problems between criminal groups, mainly gangs or is a readjustment in territorial control for drug trafficking.
“We are responding quickly, that means that we have captured in record time to the hitmen. That is, there is an increase in violence, but there is also a faster response from the National Civil Police and the Ministry of the Interior,” he said.
On March 12, the Minister of the Interior said that the increase in homicides nationwide, mainly during the weekends, was atypical, as it seems to have a “strategic objective.”
On that date Jiménez explained that the daily average of homicides was between seven and eight. However, for two weekends an unusual behavior was recorded, as the figure reached 19 and 20 murders.
“It seems that the tendency of criminal behavior is to operate effectively during the weekends. This is only possible if there is a specific will of the criminals to act in that way, and we believe, by the intelligence and investigation data, that this is so, Jiménez said on that occasion, during a press conference.
Jiménez has explained on other occasions that the increase in violence can also be a reaction for the work that security forces have done and that has impacted the organization of these groups.
It is not strategy
For the former Minister of the Interior, Mario Mérida, always in the stages prior to activities where there is a greater economic movement – as the rest of Easter and the end of the year – there is a natural increase in violence, which is why security forces implement special plans.
“I reiterate that there is no strategy behind all this to put the government badly or overthrow it; that is past water, it will not happen, or by the interests of Guatemalan citizenship or for international pressures,” he said.
Mérida considers that it also happens that citizens feed on everything that is transmitted on social networks, which causes a greater dimension of the situation at certain times.
“Although the police have succeeded in capturing some subjects, they have failed to deter crime or crimes, particularly in Guatemala City, where most criminal acts are generated. Let’s say they do not have a greater resonance in the population to say that everything is fine,” he said.
Three elements
For Sandino Asturias, a member of the Forum of Social Organizations specialized in security issues, there are three elements that explain the increase in insecurity.
Asturias argues that it can be a strategy of political organizations to discredit the government.
“Violence in Guatemala has historically been used for political purposes. We have detected that political and criminal groups use violence for their own interests,” he said.
The second element, according to Asturias, is that organized crime and common crime react to different measures implemented by the government to combat them.
“Let’s say that the fight against extortion and criminal organizations does cause a violent reaction to the measures that this government may be,” he said.
He added that a third factor is always linked to impunity. That is, violence increases as a result of the lack of criminal investigation and the absence of captures of those responsible. “Criminality works with impunity,” he concluded.
Although some crimes decreased last January, homicides and extortion increased 11 % compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the report of the National Economic Research Center (one hundred), presented on February 19 last.
In that same month, injuries, violations, kidnappings, motorcycle, merchandise and looting robberies were reduced by 1.5% compared to January 2024; However, homicides increased.