Trump announced for weeks that on April 2, 2025 he would announce reciprocal measures or tariffs, which as part of his commercial policy would be implemented to different countries, as well as tariffs on agricultural products that are imported to the United States, for which he had requested various entities of that country to carry out an analysis of each commercial partner.
The advertisements and decisions of the ruler have generated restlessness and uncertainty in the stock markets, markets and countries. Until April 1, the only generalized implementation has been 25% tariff to all imports of steel and aluminum, where Guatemala is included. Meanwhile, other actions have been announced, implemented or suspended for specific countries that are its large suppliers.
Fanny de Estrada, Director of Institutional Relations of the Guatemalan Association of Exporters (AGEXPORT), does not observe that they are going to impose such rapid measures on the country derived from several edges.
One of these is that the United States is mainly focused on its large suppliers or with which it has a deficit trade balance, between these Canada, Mexico, China, and some goods in Europe.
The other is that with the DR-CAFTA Free Trade Agreement, the relief was already carried out and most of the products of both countries already have zero tariff, except some that maintain quotas.
He replied that he cannot qualify the expectation as positive, but by logic he observes that the United States is working at this time with the countries that have gigantic and Guatemala business is very small as a supplier. “Towards Guatemala may eventually come (some measure), but the teams they have are focused on their large suppliers,” said the executive.
Meanwhile, Amcham emphasizes that the commercial relationship between Guatemala and the United States has strengthened over the years based on bilateral friendship, driven by commercial exchange and investment flow.
Waleska Sterkel de Ortiz, executive director of Amcham Guatemala, said that the legal framework established by CAFTA-DR has allowed greater certainty and a fluid trade between the two countries, which has benefited various productive sectors and promotes strategic investments. “It is important to mention that the vast majority of American products to Guatemala enjoy free trade or very low tariff rates, which significantly reduces the possibility of adopting reciprocal measures that affect Guatemalan exports,” said Sterkel de Ortiz, coinciding in that aspect for what was said by the AGEXPORT Executive.
The Directive of Amcham added, that derived from this, they trust that the commercial relationship will continue to develop in an environment of stability and mutual coordination.
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Carla Caballeros, executive director of the Chamber of Agro (Camagro), I consider that it is an action that is not addressed to Guatemala, taking into account several elements being the most important that the trade of agricultural products between Guatemala and the United States has been favorable for the United States and that agricultural trade is complementary. And it agrees that access for agricultural products between the two countries is part of the FTA where the tariff conditions were negotiated, “which in general terms could be said are reciprocal.”
United States Government Disseminates Barriers Report
On March 31, two days before Trump announced reciprocal measures and tariffs, the government through the US Commercial Representative office.
The document explains that it is a complement to the 2025 Commercial Policy Agenda of the President of that country and the Annual Report 2024, published by the USTR at the end of February 2025.
It contains the information from 59 countries, including Guatemala. It is explained in the document that the purpose of the report is to identify the barriers that the United States government seeks to eliminate, and classifies foreign trade barriers in 14 categories.
Juan Carlos Zapata, Executive Director of the Foundation for the Development of Guatemala (Fundesa) explained that the aforementioned report is an analysis carried out by the USTR to evaluate commercial issues.
He says that in summary the findings about Guatemala are the following:
- Lack of transparency and predictability in customs (SAT).
- Duplicate sanitary and phytosanitary obstacles.
- Authorizations for OGM since 2022.
- Restrictions for foreign suppliers in public hiring.
- Guatemala continues on the observation list for intellectual property.
- Legal insecurity reported by US companies.
- Duplicate and discretionary inspections in ports (with entities such as Dipafront, Sgaia and UCC).
- He still mentions lack of compliance with labor legislation.
Regarding whether these findings could serve as a basis for the United States Government to implement a tariffs or reciprocal measures for imports from Guatemala, Zapata said that document does not mention it and is not encouraged to predict it, but the evaluation gives specific recommendations of public policy that the Government of Guatemala must implement.
According to the findings, Guatemala must continue advancing in the digitalization and simplification of processing, as well as resolving sanitary and phytosanitary obstacles, among the others mentioned, however, he indicated “that the country is still far from the implementation of the antitrámitic law.”
Rubén Morales, former Minister of Economy and who was negotiating of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), considers that at this juncture it is very good that there are no tariffs to the products that are imported from the United States, and that this aspect is reflected in the USTR report.
Taking into account that report and the policy that this government is implementing regarding reciprocal rates for imports, Morales considers that there should be no effect on imports to Guatemala that will result in tariff increases.
“With that information, the United States would not apply to Guatemala the reciprocal tariffs, because the part of manufactures already enters with zero tariff in the country since the 10 years of the FTA and while the agricultural most have zero tariff,” Morales said.
And, from agricultural products that have quotas, for these Guatemala it has not chosen to raise tariffs but to increase the quotas, as refers to in the report. Morales indicates that the fees are increased every year according to the needs of the market and demand, so it does not observe risk in it.
Regarding the collection of the Value Added Tax (VAT) in Guatemala and that is mentioned in the USTR report, the former minister says that in CAFTA-DR there is an exception, which also exists in commercial agreements in a general way that the FTA does not apply to the regular taxes of the countries, so it does not eliminate them as VAT, ISR, ISO and in general. Based on this, there would be no risk that they impose on tariffs or reciprocal measures to Guatemala, but we will have to see the criteria used by the United States authorities.
Regarding this report, the AGEXport executive indicated that the problems that are detailed there are experiencing the Americans when they come to Guatemala, are the same problems as for years Guatemalan producers and exporters have faced and have asked the national authorities to solve, and mentioned permits, licenses, authorizations, certifications. Another problem cited is the intellectual property that includes smuggling.
The VAT issue, according to Estrada, must be analyzed because USTR is considering it as a tariff and is not.
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When mentioning the VAT issue, the report refers: the Guatemalan Tax Law requires that some companies that buy goods and services of other companies retain the value added tax (VAT) paid and request reimbursements for the VAT credit that they cannot compensate after two years. This process is onerous and appropriate refunds are not guaranteed.
And separately, the document refers that companies have expressed concern that the Guatemala Tax Authority (SAT) uses an inaccurate reference price database to determine the value of imported goods, erroneously apply the values of the database as minimums instead of reference and compare imports with different products in the database.
In addition, when the SAT conducts investigations of the declared values, the review process often results in the detention of the product imported for 20 days or more, and that the appeals imply a long and opaque process that has lasted up to four years in some cases. In 2022, the US government was committed to the Guatemala government to help enter an automated system to provide more transparency and help dispatch shipments on bail more quickly.