Towards the United States, the main shipments produced by Central America are directed and as a whole it is the main commercial partner that generates the main source of foreign exchange for foreign sales.
The announcement of the imposition of 10% of tariff to the original products of Guatemala and Central America that enter the US market, must be analyzed in depth, but for the moment the prudence is called.
Subscriber content
The monetary authorities and the Banking Association of Guatemala (ABG), explained that the possibility of a “contagion” or “transmission effect” for the national financial system is not expected, by the provisions announced in the trade.
On the contrary, they reiterated that this situation can represent an opportunity in the sense of promoting exports.
35% of Guatemala’s total exports in 2024 were headed to the United States with US $ 4,556.3 million and 15 products as a whole represent 76%. As of March 31, that list has generated currencies for US $ 1,360.3 million, according to the records of the Customs Administration of the Superintendence of Tax Administration (SAT).
Between opportunities and uncertainty
By consulting Luis Rolando Lara Grojec, director of the ABG about the announcement of the tariff policy that the White House announced this week and its possible effects, he said that it is a fairly drastic change and the result, Guatemala went very well when assigning 10% as a tariff, which is the least percentage.
In addition, that it is in the list of the “less damaged” countries, so that can support so that there is much greater effective investment.
“Guatemala is in the list of” less damaged “countries, so that can support so that there is much greater effective investment.
Luis Rolando Lara Grojec, director of the ABG
However, he clarified that there is a climate of great uncertainty, it is not known that it will happen and “if this – the tariffs – is a step to negotiate.” In any case, that if you will get with that position there may be inflation problems, (which is the general price increase in the economy) as well as a slight impact of employment in the United States, but that will be determined over time.
Discard contagion to the system
Lara Grojec also ruled out that there is the possibility that there is a risk of “infection” or transmission effect to the local financial system, due to the implementation of commercial barriers.
“I do not believe it, and we consider that Guatemala is going to leave better because for example a country that has larger tariffs now it will deal with how it invests in Guatemala that has 10% or companies can come to settle here that can be affected in other countries,” he said.
Subscriber content
He added that there may be in the US, a reduction in the interest rate to when the employment data is known, and that it can also occur in Guatemala. “I am very positive on the Guatemala side,” he reiterated.
On the other hand, the ABG manager does not consider that the economy of the United States, between a stagflation (which occurs when there is a stagnation in the economy and a rise in prices or high inflation) but there could be a slowdown, since the projection was a growth of 2.7%.
What ABG recommends
Given this external situation, he was consulted what is the recommendation for economic agents and decision makers to which he replied: “They invest in our dearest country and that the authorities invest in infrastructure. At all you have to fear, Guatemala will grow more than 4%, bank credit to the private sector is growing above 10% and it is going very well; you don’t have to worry and be optimistic.”
Subscriber content
On the economic projections for 2025, Lara Grojec, commented that they remain well and positive, an interest rate that would be decreasing, controlled inflation and a stable exchange rate, which make an ideal environment propitious to make investments.
Regional vision
Érick Campos Bolaños, General Central America Manager of Moody’s Local (Risk-País Agency), indicated that the announcement of tariffs is very recent and must be studied in depth, but the issue goes by the percentages for the region in relation to other countries.
“The first sensation may be negative, but relatively in other countries they can have higher costs and what seems like a disadvantage not necessarily for Central American countries. It would be necessary to see how to be framed in something broader in tariff issues,” he said.
Subscriber content
Regarding uncertainty, the specialist commented that it is in a moment with many changes in different economic policy addresses.
Diplomatic conversations
The provisions announced on Wednesday, April 2 by President Donald Trump, were analyzed by the members of the Monetary Board (JM).
Álvaro González Ricci, president of the JM and Banco de Guatemala (Banguat) declared that there is an uncertainty is the common denominator in this situation and one of the effects was in the fall of the shareholding contributions in the different bags, which can reduce the foreign direct investment, local investment, paralyzes capital flows, among others.
He reiterated that Guatemala is one of the less affected countries with the tariff sheet in relation to other countries, so it will be up to diplomacy to maintain conversations with the US, which is our main commercial partner and exhaust those diplomatic roads.
He cited as an example that for Guatemala there may be interesting opportunities in the costume and textile sector, with respect to other countries that have higher tariffs, so it may be that there are more orders, purchase or investment orders to have a certificate of origin and enter the US.