The currencies for family remittances in Guatemala again marked a record by placing US $ 2 billion that is equivalent to Q15 billion alone in March; Growth would be associated with the Trump effect, especially the execution of immigration policy.
In the update of the exchange balance this Monday, April 7, Guatemala received an increase in the transfers carried out by migrants residing in the United States to their relatives, registering US $ 2 billion.
The trend was already observed between January and February, when the authorities of the Central Banking presented as “extraordinary” and “unusual” amounts that would be associated with a greater amount and frequency of shipments.
For example, in January 2025 US $ 1,817.6 million was counted and in February US $ 1,821.4 million, but now in March the value climbed to US $ 2 billion. During the first quarter, remittances had an increase of 20.5% or double digit compared to the same period last year, according to the official report.
What explains it?
This upward behavior registered in Guatemala is not exclusive, but is also being observed in El Salvador and Honduras, associated with the migratory measures adopted by the authorities in the United States, said Marcel Arévalo, coordinator of the Poverty and Migration Program of the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (Flacso).
“It was expected, under the current conditions that are happening in the relations in the migratory system that are occurring in Central America and in which Guatemala has a relevant dimension,” said the social researcher by explaining what was reported by the central bank.
“It was expected, under the current conditions that are happening in relations in the migratory system that are occurring in Central America and in which Guatemala has a relevant dimension”
Marcel Arévalo, Flacso researcher
He recalled that as a whole the migrants of Central America in the United States, have already exceed In one case they have to be deported. ”
Arévalo remarked that migrants are “sending everything they can” since many lose what they had when they are arrested and expelled, so they prefer to make more transfers in amounts and frequencies, which would be explaining the trend during the first quarter.
In any case, he reiterated that this trend was expected for the phenomenon in the US, this has effects on the national economy, because remittances are managed by banking, as well as families that are beneficiaries.
He concluded that an effect of “bonanza” can occur for the offices, but could have other economic consequences that are improved on the one hand, but on the other hand they get worse, specifically when referring to the issue of the imposition of tariffs on Guatemalan exports by the United States.
Double growth
During the first quarter of the year, the amount entered is US $ 5,642.7 million (Q43 thousand 448 million), which means an average of US $ 1,880 million. In the same period of 2024, the amount was US $ 4,682 million, which represented a monthly average of US $ 1,560 million.
The growth rate to the first quarter was 20.5%.
Banguat forecasts point out that for this year US $ 22,800.8 million (about Q175 thousand 500 million) will be received, which will mean a 6% growth as a central value.