Since February the United States has announced several bargaining Tariffs against business partners and rivals, some of which have reacted with countermeasures.
At the beginning the markets seemed to take it easy, until the so -called “reciprocal” tariffs of April 2 made their bags tremble. Something recovered when Trump announced a partial pause and several exemptions.
“The rapid escalation of commercial tensions and extremely high levels of political uncertainty” will have “An important impact on global economic activity”read in the IMF report. He points out that this time is a “reference forecast.”
The equation is complex. The IMF claims to have taken into consideration the evolution of tariffs until April 4, but not retaliation measures between Beijing and Washington.
“We entered a period in which the global economic system we have known for 80 years is reset. But beyond the massive rise in tariffs, Uncertainty weighs a lot about the economy and, if continuing, will stop world growth“Warned the chief economist of the IMF, Pierre-Loivier Gourinchas, at a press conference.
As a sample of the great impact of customs rates the background highlights a fact: The trade of goods and services will grow only 1.7% this year, instead of 3.2% planned three months ago.
With its 2.8% growth (0.5 percentage points less than expected) the world economy should be fought from “the recession”, predicts nevertheless Gourinchas.
Variable impact
The IMF does not yet consider the possibility of a recession for the United States, the largest economy in the world, “because (until now) it has remained in a solid position: the economy continues to grow and the labor market remains strong,” Gourinchas explained.
But the tariff blow hurts Mexico. Its economy will contract 0.3% this year (-1.7 pp) due to the impact of US tariffs, a slowdown in activity, uncertainty and hardening of financing conditions, explains the IMF.
The second largest economy in Latin America drags the continent down.
For Latin America and the Caribbean, the Fund, based in Washington, predicts that economic growth is moderated to 2.0% in 2025 (-0.5 pp), before repressing 2.4% in 2026 (-0.3 pp over its previous forecast).
Not only does Magulted Mexico remain but the economies of the other two countries in North America, with a strong downward review compared to the three months before: United States +1.8% this year (- 0.9 pp) and Canada +1.4% (-0.6pp).
China, Main Diana of Trump’s tariffs (+145% on their products in addition to those existing before the return of the Republican to power in January) will also accuse the coup. It could experience its weakest growth since 1990, with only 4% GDP expansion.
It is expected that the eurozone does better but “Tariffs will weaken a modest economic recovery (…) Despite an increase in public spending” In some countries like Germany, Gourinchas explained. In his opinion, more expense “in infrastructure could help accelerate growth.”
The panorama changed
“The panorama has changed. We are entering a new era in which the global economic system that has worked in recent years has restarted,” said the chief economist, making it clear that “All countries have been negatively affected” by the tariff conflict.
Financial conditions could also harden as markets negatively react to the decrease in growth prospects and increased uncertainty, he added.
“On the other hand, the growth prospects could immediately improve if the countries make their current commercial policy more flexible and promote a new clear and stable environment,” he said, pointing out that “monetary policy must continue to be agile and respond hardening policies when they reappear when they reappear inflationary pressures and flexible when the demand is weak. “
Gourinchas highlighted the importance of central banks in the current juncture.
“The fundamental thing is to ensure that inflation expectations are stable, That everyone is still convinced that the central banks will do what is necessary for inflation to return to their objectives sustainably. “
These institutions, he said, “have instruments to achieve this. (…) The fundamental aspect of their management lies in their credibility. Therefore they must maintain their credibility, and part of it is based on its independence,” he said at a time when Trump has reiterated his pressures to the Federal Reserve (FED) to lower the types, which are located in a fork from 4.25 to 4.5%.