Among the different projections that the Monetary Board reviewed upwards is the entry of family remittances by 2025. However, although in the country more remittances are being received, mainly from migrants living in the United States, they are not all precisely addressing consumption or the banking system, according to authorities and analysts.
The initial estimate of family remittances for the end of the year 2025 was a growth in the central value of 6%, but has been reviewed up by the Monetary Board and is projected to close at 9%, according to information released by the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) on April 30.
This represents that the projection grew at US $ 645.3 million, from US $ 22 thousand 801 million to US $ 23,450 million for the closing of 2025. By 2026, an amount of around US $ 24 thousand 800 million is expected, while 2024 closed at US $ 21,510 million.
As of April 24, 2025 US $ 7,177.6 million in family remittances have been received, which represents a 16.7% growth, authorities reported at a press conference.
They are not consuming everything
Asked about the behavior of the Savings Protection Fund (FOPA), the Banguat General Manager indicated on April 29 that, according to the figures updated at the end of March, the assets of the fund amounted to Q12 thousand 117.4 million, which represents an increase of Q408 million during the year with respect to December 2024. This strengthens the assets of the fund and it is reflected its mission, in accordance with the Law of Banks and Financial Groups.
However, he clarified that at this time the financial system is stable, liquid, healthy and no risk is seen. From his statements the consultation of whether the liquidity of the system has grown a lot for the increase of remittances, to which the official replied that it is not yet significantly reflected.
He explained that, although an increase in the flow of family remittances has been observed – which, until April 17, was around 20% year -on -year – believe that most of these are being sent to Guatemala due to caution. They consider that they would not be spending, but, basically, they would work as savings due to prevention of the risk that the nationals who are abroad can be returned to the country.
Analysts observe the Trump effect
Pedro Pablo Solares, an analyst on migratory issues, said that it is undeniable that this year the increase in family remittances greater than the projected is due mainly to the Trump effect, “which has created terror among undocumented communities.” He added that in the United States there is a state of uncertainty about the future since January 2025, and that causes money surpluses to be sent to Guatemala, instead of being invested in that country.
However, he explained that, although greater consumption could be expected in Guatemala by relatives who manage remittances, he has been able to observe that families are at a time of great austerity, due to that uncertainty.
“A lot of caution is observed; they have uncertainty if tomorrow there will be work for them in the United States or if, perhaps, they will have to return to Guatemala. That affects consumption, but also the investment. It is a moment when you can expect the economic contraction of migrant communities,” Solares said.
He cites another point that he considers important: only 9.6% of remittance receptors formally save in banking institutions, according to the migration and remittance survey of the International Organization for Migration (IIM) in 2022. Most of the use of the remittance in Guatemala is out of banking, which represents one more challenge for the strategies that seek financial inclusion in the country, the analyst added.
On the other hand, Pedro Prado, an expert in economy issues in Thuses, cited that in 2024 the Inter -American Development Bank (IDB) published that the behavior of entry by family remittances in Latin America continues to grow, but that the trend is that there is a reduction in the rhythm of growth rates. However, Prado said that, in recent months, in Guatemala, it is striking that there have been record growth, which could be responding to high extent to restrictive immigration policy by the United States government.
Prado mentioned that it coincides with the provisions of authorities of the Central Bank: migrants and their families could be keeping their resources and no longer consume everything.
“It is a Trump effect, it is the fear of Guatemalan migrants in the United States of being returned to the country,” he added.
He commented that two behaviors are seen: one is the effect of fear on the part of the migrant, which keeps money and sends more remittances, and another, the prevention of those who receive that money, who save it or are not spending everything, in anticipation of a scenario in which their relatives are returned.
He recalled that, in the structure of that item, most of them go for consumption and very little for savings, because that money also helps for purchases, health expenses, education and housing construction.
Subscriber content
In addition, there have been voices of several social actors who propose that remittances are invested in productive projects. Others consider that the State has not provided development opportunities to people, which is why many have had to migrate, so they should not decide what remittances should be spent. However, some believe that scenarios or projects could be generated in conjunction with international cooperation, the government and the decisions of the migrant, where those who receive the roughness are given to participate in development projects, always respecting the decision of those who send and receive the money.
In other governments, it has been said that the roughness has been a lifeguard or a shock absorber for the national economy, but at the expense of family disintegration, insecurity or even the loss of lives.
In addition, transfers figures have history to tell, but do not necessarily point to the integral development of families, such as the application of measures that contribute to the development of the country, more work sources – especially within the Republic – and improve the services of the State in health, education and other actions, added Prado.