The second year of the tenth legislature of the Congress of the Republic has been marked by a rearrangement of forces and the reconfiguration of the opposition alliance headed by Allan Rodríguez, from the Vamos block, and backed by other deputies such as Inés Castillo, of the National Unit of Hope (UNE); Felipe Alejos, from the All bench, and Álvaro Arzú Escobar, of the Unionist Party.
The Alliance has sought to impose an agenda that seeks to occupy the first Secretariat of the Directive, to make changes in the presidencies of the Energy and Mining Commissions, and of Public Finance and Currency, in addition to relieving the representative of the Congress before the Monetary Board. These two commissions are key to the approval of next year’s budget, prior to the electoral process, and for a possible extension of the oil exploitation contract by Perenco.
In the background, analysts consider that the group also calibrates forces against the second -degree elections, scheduled for next year.
The objective is to recover decision spaces in Congress and define the agenda and the issues that must be known and approved within the hemicycle. The alliance would have as a goal, before May 15 – when the ordinary session end – establish an agenda of specific issues for the second period, which will begin in August.
Accommodation of quotas
Carmen Aída Ibarra, executive director of the Projusticia movement, said that the agenda aimed at changing the presidents of some commissions or replacing the Congress representative before the Monetary Board has an unusual dye. Obviously, the opposition led by Rodríguez, Arzú and others seeks to accommodate the fees of power, since it has – at this time – the parliamentary majority.
He also assured that, if this aspect is specified, the application of the regulations would be altered, which establishes that the presidents of commissions and the representatives of the Congress before the institutions are elected by a certain period, so it would only be viable to make changes if a definitive absence occurs, renunciation, death, change of party or lack of partisan affiliation.
Perenco and strategic commissions
Regarding the changes in the presidencies of the commissions, Rosal states that it is evident that there are specific interests, such as the approval of the budget for the year 2026 and the continuity of the oil operations of the Perenco company, in the Laguna del Tigre National Park, in Petén.
“The finance and currency commission is decisive because it issues an opinion, discusses and makes all arrangements in the budget project for 2026 that the Executive will present within a few months,” says Rosal.
And the Energy and Mines Commission is also fundamental around Perenco, adds the political scientist. “Recall that for a few weeks the issue of expansion of the operation of the company that exploits oil in Guatemala has been raised, and that opposition has revealed its intention to support the continuity of the operations, contrary to the position of the executive itself,” he says.
Country and interest agenda
According to Deputy Rodríguez, from the Vamos Block, the agenda that together with other legislative opposition blocks are promoting is a “country agenda”, through which the participation of all blocks is sought, and not only of interest to some groups. He also assured that he does not pursue particular or sectoral interests, but of common interest.
Deputy Inés Castillo, of the UNE block – which is also part of this opposition alliance – said that, now that they have grouped and organized, “some deputies did not like because, obviously, they will impose certain issues on the political agenda.” Contrary to what is expressed by Rodríguez, he said that all deputies have interests within the four processes of election of officials that will be held next year at the Congress of the Republic.
“Like all 160 deputies, they will have interests in these processes, which already have established deadlines, there will be interest of both the opposition and the official party. That is natural; those interests have to be given, then if these processes come …”.
Regarding the reform of the commission distribution agreement for the redistribution of finance and energy and mines commissions, he said that “it is a power of the plenary and, if the Plenary agrees to reform this agreement, it will be done”, so it ensures that there is no illegality.
Come back to the CC
The opposition benches, headed by Deputy Allan Rodríguez, again went to the Constitutional Court (CC) to request that the due executory take place and thus continue in the ordinary session next Tuesday, May 13, with the points of the agenda that was pending after being lifted by the president of Congress, Nery Ramos, last May 6 due to lack of quorum.
In this action, opponents claim that rights were violated, as well as the principle of certainty and legal certainty, due process and the principle of legality. They also denied the statements of the president of the Legislative, who ordered the closure of the session.
In addition, they denounce the actions of people who blocked the passage in the entrances of the Congress of the Republic to prevent the entry of deputies into the facilities, and claim that there was manipulation of the electronic board at the time the session was built.
Power positions
Among the priorities are the election of the first Secretariat of the Board of Directors, the Presidency of the Public Finance and Currency Commissions, and of Energy and Mines, as well as the change of the legislative representative before the Monetary Board. A chair in that instance has direct incidence in the choice of the vice president of the Guatemalan Social Security Institute (IGSS).
The Finance Chamber is in charge of Julio Héctor Estrada, of the Cabal Party, who in statements to the press, says he has talked with some of his colleagues and indicates that the relay is totally illegal. “Article 31 speaks that the commissions are named annually and nowhere it appears that they can be changed by arbitrary decisions or for changes of situation,” he said.
At the discretion of the analyst Renzo Rosal, there had been a wrong perception about the loss of force of the alliance that, during the last two governments, was official. It is clear that, for example, the we are going, which now stars in this opposition group – was strengthened, like other groups, Rosal said.
In 2024, that alliance was rather diminished and in the process of recomposition, due to the incorporation of a considerable group of new deputies in almost all parliamentary blocks. In addition, to a large extent, this same opposition alliance benefited from some law initiatives promoted or backed by the ruling, Rosal explained.
According to the analyst, among these initiatives are budget 2025, budget extension and livestock law, among others, which gave an impression – to their judgment, false – that this legislature would be more efficient and would have a greater performance within the legislative.
The opposition group in Congress also seeks to occupy the space on the Board of Directors that is released with the departure of Karina Paz from the first Secretariat. The deputies of the will, opportunity and solidarity block (you) affirmed that they will not dispute that position.
In Rosal’s opinion, “the first Secretariat has become a turning point because, depending on which group you stay with it – whether the group close to Nery Ramos or the opposition group of Allan Rodríguez and company – will guide or unbalance the tendency of the Board of Directors, key to decision making and to raise the legislative agenda, especially in the second period of sessions.”
On the issue of the first secretariat, Ibarra states: “In the case of Karina Paz there are precedents. He was elected without having a party because, as I understand, he did not join you and did not reach that position with the endorsement of the party and the bench. He went by his own means.”
According to Rosal, another aspect that will charge notoriety in 2026 is the election of charges in the Public Ministry, the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Electoral Court and the Comptroller General of Accounts, instances in which the Congress of the Republic exercises a determining role.
“If all these tactics give more maneuvering space to the opposition, they will put President Arévalo against the ropes, so, finally, the opposition group could go out with theirs holding control both on the Congress agenda and in these four instances that will be played next year.”