Jean Paul Brichaux, Coordinator of the Business Commission for Negotiations and International Trade (Cencit), made up of various cameras and business associations, exposes the main concerns of the sector against 10% tariffs set by the United States to imports of Guatemalan products.
He says that it will be very relevant to the country to know what the Office of the United States Commercial Representative (USTR) regarding the progress and commitments that may exist or that may arise at the May 27 meeting with the Government’s High Level Delegation, in relation to trade facilitation issues.
What are Cencit’s main concerns about the increase in tariffs by the United States and the impact it can represent?
The main concern is that as a country we lose competitiveness against our main competitors. This, taking into account that Mexico and Canada were not imposed on the 10% tariff that we do have the rest of the countries. Therefore, we already have a competitive disadvantage with respect to them.
With the rest of the world we are at the same level, but the concern remains from another point of view: as other countries globally resolve or improve their commercial situation with the United States and are reduced or eliminated by that tariff, Guatemala will lose competitiveness as an exporting country.
Another concern is our ability to improve the competitiveness of the country, which would allow us to have an advantage over our competitors in terms of infrastructure – ported and road – and trade facilitation, as procedures and procedures at the borders. This would help mitigate, to some extent, the impact of the tariff.
After more than a month of having gained validity, have you observed the impact of 10% tariffs imposed by the United States from imports from Guatemala?
The impact is quite dynamic, but in general terms it is estimated at around US $ 460 million. This figure is derived from Guatemala exported at 2024 about US $ 4.6 billion to the United States.
We are talking about a monthly average exports of US $ 384 million and daily US $ 12 million. If we apply 10%, the cost is estimated at US $ 1.2 million.
Every day that this measure is active, the cost it represents for Guatemala exports will increase.
According to information from the main sectors, that cost has been covered by the exporter, since importers in the United States have demanded to assume it.
In the short term, during these months, it is a commercial relationship issue between buyer and seller, where it is established who covers the tariff. In the medium and long term, if the measure continues, that cost will be incorporated into the supply or value chains in different ways, depending on the sector, the client and the search for a sustainable commercial relationship.
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If the United States reduces tariff for other countries and not for us, we are losing competitiveness and becoming more expensive. But if we manage to solve it before, that will give us a greater margin of competitiveness.
At the moment, the United States has not eliminated that 10% to any country or talked about a term.
The total exports of Guatemala from the first quarter grew 10.7%. In that period the new tariffs are not applied yet. What influenced that growth?
It could have been the increase in inventories in the United States prior to tariffs, due to existing uncertainty.
Several stages should be considered. The first is that, prior to the measure, the news generates an increase in imports by buyers to anticipate. The second is that, once the measure enters into force, some negotiations and purchases are stopped for ignoring which products apply.
When you have April figures you could see a reduction in imports of Guatemalan products and the world. In May or June it could begin to regularize.
It should be remembered that there was a 90 -day pause for countries that imposed a tariff greater than 10%, which leaves in the hands of each buyer or industry in the US. The decision to postpone purchases, import with tariff or assume the cost.
There are different variables that will affect the dynamics of trade between the United States, the world and Guatemala.
Cencit has expressed concern for the deadline to negotiate with the US authorities and asks the government to speed up it. How do progress observe?
Guatemala is in the tail along with other countries that seek meetings with the US. Even so, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had an initial approach. Since April 2, when the US published the measure, there was coordination with the Ministry of Economy and meetings with the President to follow up on a roadmap of the Executive.
Interinstitutional meetings have been held to review the non-tariff commercial barriers indicated by the US. The Government has already requested the meeting with USTR, which will be held soon, and has been talked about a public-private delegation.
Was Guatemala took to request the appointment or is it not prepared to present advances to the USTR?
Countries like India, the United Kingdom and China already met with the USA and established commitments. Guatemala also asked for the appointment, but the times define them. UU.
It is important that there is already a date for the meeting with USTR, which works in a public-private delegation and proposals are sought. You have to continue advancing and see how to take advantage of the crisis.
Mineco detected solutions to commercial barriers and announced advances in two or three months. How do you consider that period?
The issues are varied, some are automation of customs or borders processes, which requires time. It can be a prudential term and the results must be observed.
The meeting will be key to knowing the OSTR opinion about advances and commitments. It is sought that imports enter with less documentation, faster and less cost. But this analysis must be permanent and also cover exports to improve the competitiveness of the country.