The Russian forces have been strengthening their bases and building military infrastructure near the border with Finland, according to recent satellite images, movements that could reveal their strategy for what happens after the Ukraine War.
The images, confirmed by OTÁN officials, show a row after another of new tents, new stores that can store military vehicles, renovations of shelters of combat airplanes and constant construction activity on a helicopter base that had been mostly unusable and weeding.
Until now, the movements seem to be the early stages of a larger expansion and longer, and OTÁN officials affirm that this is not similar to the extension along the border with Ukraine before the large -scale invasion that Russia undertook in 2022. For now, Russia, worried about its war in Ukraine, has very few soldiers along the border They insist that none of this constitutes a great threat, yet.
But Finland is one of the most recent members of the Otan, as it joined two years ago, and the movements undoubtedly reflect the perception of a threat by Moscow: this border of about 1,335 kilometers is now the longest contact line of the western alliance with Russia. Military analysts predict that it could become a critical point, especially since much of it is in the increasingly disputed Arctic Circle.
The American and Finnish troops recently celebrated an elaborate Arctic War game in this region, in which hundreds of soldiers ran through the forests and the Finnish slides between the trees with background skis. The alleged enemy? Russia.
Finnish defense officials predict that if the high intensity phase of the Ukraine War – one of the objectives of the labor efforts that take place in Turkey – Russia will end up deploying thousands of soldiers on the Finnish border.
The Finns believe that they have about five years before Russia can increase their forces to threatening levels. But they are sure that it will happen and that the number of Russian soldiers to which they will face will triple.
“We will be talking about much higher levels of soldiers,” said Brigade General Pekka Turunen, director of the Finnish Defense Intelligence.
From Moscow’s perspective, Russians need to reinforce their defenses to protect themselves from the expansion of the Otan, which has always been a delicate issue. The Baltic countries were the first members of the former Soviet Union who joined the Otan, so that great extensions of the Russian border remained next to those of the Otan. The perspective that Ukraine, an old Soviet republic, followed his example was so threatening for Moscow that it became one of the causes of the most devastating land war in generations.
“The Russian army has experienced an important expansion of its forces,” said Michael Kofman, principal researcher at the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace in Washington. “After the war, the land force will probably end up being larger than before 2022. If we observe the expected restructuring of the military districts, it seems clear that they will give priority to the areas that are in front of the Otan.” The Otan officials agree.
When the war in Ukraine ends, said a senior Ortan official, Russia will display soldiers increasingly north.
Russia believes that Arctic and access in the Arctic are key to the status of great power, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to address a delicate issue.
According to satellite images, Russian helicopters returned to a base near Murmansk, a port city in the Arctic Circle, after not having been there for two decades.
As the Ukrainian drones have as its objective aerodromes throughout Russia, the Russian command has moved its assets to the north, to get out of reach. This has placed them much closer to the territory of the Otan.
Dozens of Russian combat planes were recently seen at the Olenya air base, also in the Arctic already less than 160 kilometers of the Finnish border, according to satellite images. Another recent activity includes more than a hundred new tents that appeared about a year ago in Kamenka, a Russian base located less than 64 kilometers from Finland.
“They are expanding their brigades to make them divisions, which means that units close to our borders will grow significantly, in thousands,” said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Black Bird Group, a Finnish organization that analyzes military evolution in the north and in Ukraine.
Kastehelmi, who analyzed dozens of recent images for The New York TimesHe said that the next few years could bring massive changes in the Finnish border, depending on how and when the war ends in Ukraine.
In Alakurti, also near Finland, and Petrozavodsk, a little further, the Russians have built new buildings that can house at least tens of vehicles. The activity has also increased in other places. Recently new stores and military material have appeared on a base located about 130 kilometers from Estonia.
The Finns have an old expression: Russia is never as strong as it seems and is never as weak as it seems. Therefore, Finnish defense leaders have been characteristically practical about the accumulation of troops.
“The increase in military force in our nearby areas will occur when fighting in Ukraine is calmed,” said Janne Kuusela, director of Defense Policy of the Ministry of Defense.
How long it will take, he said, he doesn’t know.
But, he added, “for that we have to be prepared.”