Obstacles to the presidency of Bernardo Arévalo are not summarized to opposition parties and the Public Ministry (MP). Now, the division of the political party that led him to power is a new challenge for his management, analysts coincide.
This weekend the internal break between the deputies elected by seed movement was evident. A group promotes the creation of a new political party, while others reject the idea for not having made a democratic decision.
Semilla Movement is currently canceled by a court order that complied with the Registry of Citizens of the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE). But, although there is a pending appeal to try to reactivate the party, some seed militants opt for another proposal.
For analysts on political issues, the division within the official bloc will complicate the obtaining of agreements in Congress, and that, in addition, that fragmentation will echo until the Presidency and complicate the governance of the Arévalo administration, they point out.
“Unfortunately, the president since his inauguration has not had great support since Congress because they have invested a lot of time to defend themselves with the legal proceedings that have opened them,” Ruben Hidalgo, director of the Central American Institute of Political Studies (INCE).
However, the complex scenario that the president already faced to promote projects within the legislative will be more complicated, and the future negotiation of the budget for his third year of mandate will be in a delicate situation.
“If they are really divided naturally, a scenario of greater ungovernability will mean for the government. They may sign up for clientele issues that will not improve the economy, which will not leave anything in the background, it will simply be a cast,” said Francisco Quezada, of the National Economic Research Center (one hundred).
The same reading maintains Alejandro Quinteros, an independent political analyst, who considers that it is unlikely that the current executive administration complies with at least a campaign promise.
“While the government did not start well and had been doing things with some superficiality, now anything they plan to do for the next few years will cost them even more,” he said.
New alliances?
The Arévalo government still has a lot of work to do, but to fulfill its programming they need Congress to support them with the approval of the budget project elaborated by the Ministry of Finance.
I would also need this body in case some situation in the country merits a state of exception or that by national urgency require a budget extension, among other issues.
However, if his bench of 23 deputies is not united, at Hidalgo’s discretion, political negotiations will be more difficult. Even the Executive would have to seek support from other deputies, which already represents a challenge.
“We see that we are going to have a president with a greater weakness of participation and support in the Legislative, who will have to seek to negotiate in various ways the political support he needs to carry out the efforts of his government,” he said.
According to Quezada, reaching these possible agreements could cause the government to fall into offers, so that opposition benches or deputies who do not share the ideology of seed movement are willing to collaborate, eventually, in some votes.
“I believe that in the end this is an important year because the purpose of the party to position and avoid both wear for the inoperative they have is that they are going to launch into a clientele project. This is where they manage to capitalize with adherents with clientele projects,” he added.
Like other games
Analysts emphasize that it is common in Guatemala to see how political parties are born and die, but in the case of seed movement, this effect seems to be too precipitated.
“We can conclude that Semilla Movement was the victim of the culture that prevails in all parties, weak, fractional movements, little democratic and with marked differences,” said Hidalgo.
During the weekend, some seed deputies, led by Samuel Pérez, presented the “Raíces” project, an alternative to the official party for being canceled and with which they would expect to be able to participate in the general elections of 2027.
The fact of insisting on a new party to the cancellation of the original, at the discretion of the experts, is a sign of how politicians seek to perpetuate themselves in office, although that means internal enmity in projects that were sold as solid and stable.
“Rescuing the operation of the State is something that they had great, so they could bet on clientele proposals. To this have opted similar regimes in other countries, to practically buy votes,” Quinteros concluded.
Of the 23 deputies elected by seed movement for the tenth legislature, 15 support the creation of roots, while eight oppose the way in which the decision was made, qualifying it even unilateral.