In the session of the Monetary Board (JM) corresponding to May made tonight to learn about the decision of the leading rate of monetary policy, This remained at 4.5%, an indicator that has been maintained since November 2024, that is in the last seven months.
The decision was by majority by the members of that collegiate body, and Only the representative of the organized private sector voted against, who analyzed and discussed the international and local context, on the evolution of the different indicators and the exhibition provided by the technical bodies of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) on the balance of inflation risks.
The next meeting to meet The decision on the leading rate of interest is scheduled for June 25; Then there will be a recess period in July, to resume the positions on August 27, according to the official calendar.
Fundamentals
During a press conference, Álvaro González Ricci, president of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), presented some foundations that support the decision and the integral analysis of the external and internal economic situation is considered key.
For example, in the external environment, it was highlighted that economic activity began to lose dynamism, which has reduced the different projections of world economic growth both for 2025 and 2026, associated with the “intensification of commercial tensions, in an environment, in an environment of high levels of uncertainty and considerable downward risks”.
At the same time, the international price of the barrel of oil was highlighted, which shows an important decrease that would be associated with the expectations of a world’s world supply of crude oil and a high uncertainty in relation to demand.
The JM knew that international inflation, although it has been reduced, continues above their respective goals in some economies and it was identified that the risks are biased upwards
It was also reported that, in the local environment, it was analyzed that the uncertainty externally had an impact on economic activity, especially with the main commercial partners, so the estimate of the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 3.8% as a central value and by 2026 in 3.9% was reviewed.
The inflationary rhythm in April was 1.47%, intermennsual inflation at 0.19%and accumulated 0.54%, below the lower limit of the goal provided by 4%plus/least 1%, explained above all by the dispersion “of internal supply shocks of food and the decrease in fuel prices.”
The central bank official reiterated that inflation would converge to the central value of the aforementioned goal for this and the following year, according to forecasts and inflation expectations.
They clarified that world protectionist policies worldwide could generate inflationary pressures of external origin.
Record
From May 2022 to date, the leading rate has risen from 1.75% to 5%:
- From January to April 2022: 1.75%
- May 2022: 2%
- June 2022: 2.25%
- August 2022: 2.75%
- September 2022: 3%
- November 2022: 3.75
- January 2023: 4.25%
- February 2023: 4.50%
- March 2023: 4.75%
- April 2023: 5%
- May 2023: 5%
- June 2023: 5%
- August 2023: 5%
- September 2023: 5%
- November 2023: 5%
- February 2024: 5%
- March 2024: 5%
- April 2024: 5%
- May 2024: 5%
- June 2024: 5%
- August 2024: 5%
- September 2024: 4.75%
- November 2024: 4.50%
- February 2025: 4.50%
- March 2025: 4.50%
- April 2025: 4.50%
- May 2025: 4.50%