The commercial war of President Donald Trump is expected to slow the growth of the world’s main economies, including that of the United States, this year and in the coming years, unless world leaders can agree on trade.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development decreased its world production prospects to 2.9% this year, unlike 3.3% in 2024, the organization said in its economic report published on Tuesday.
The organization said that economic growth in the United States is expected to be especially weak, with an increase of 1.6% this year, which means a decrease with respect to the 2.2% planned in March, and 1.5% in 2026, below its previous estimate of 1.6%. The US economy grew 2.8% in 2024.
“Until the end of 2024, the world economy showed true resilience,” said Mathias Cormann, general secretary of the organization. “But the world economic environment has become significantly more difficult since then.”
In the first three months of the year, economic growth in countries supervised by the organization, which is based in Paris, “fell abruptly” to 0.1% compared to the last three months of 2024, which represents “the slowest growth rate from the peak of the Covid-19 Pandemic about five years ago,” said Cormann.
Since he assumed the position, Trump has imposed tariffs, then has paused them for several weeks and then has restored some, hoping to get new trade agreements with different countries, both allies that used to be close – such as Canada, Mexico and the European Union – to rivals, and China.
The lack of certainty derived from this intermittent strategy, combined with the frequent changes in the final amount of tariffs, has shocked the markets and altered the flow of goods and services throughout the world. From January to March, many companies rushed to send goods to the United States, hoping to avoid higher tariffs, many of which will take effect in July.
Even if Trump’s government increased tariffs to most United States business partners by just 10%, the country’s economic growth would be reduced by 1.6% in two years, the report said. The worldwide growth would contain almost a complete percentage point in the same period.
The report said that leading economies, such as those of the European Union, are needed to increase military spending while investing in the transition to a green economy.
It is expected that the economies of the 20 countries that use the common currency of the euro grow by 1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, in line with the March of the OECD of March. The Chinese economy is expected to grow 4.7% this year and 4.3% in 2026, 0.1% less than the spring forecast of the organization.
The economists of the organization urged countries to reach trade agreements and to increase investment to reactivate economic growth.
“Our key recommendation, aimed at all governments, is that they commit each other to address the problems of a worldwide commercial system,” said Cormann.