Meanwhile exports are still growing. In the first quarter of 2025, sales abroad increased 11.2%, but part of that ralda behavior attributes it to the uncertainty generated by tariffs imposed by the United States, among other factors that explain in the extract of this interview.
What are the conclusions of the visit to Washington with the delegation to negotiate tariffs with the United States?
The joint work between the private sector and the government has been a very good strategy. This sends forceful messages of coordination, good communication and harmony between both sectors. Continue with this dynamic will be important. We need to maintain coordination, communication and continue pushing the common front, which is the interest of Guatemala. They have not started negotiations, but the way were opened when speaking with the Office of the United States Commercial Representative (USTR).
Another conclusion is that Guatemala’s political alignment with the United States plays an important role. The visit of President Bernardo Arévalo to Taiwan is extremely relevant, he aligns very well to the foreign policy of the United States and that weighs a lot in the negotiation.
What we are looking for is for Guatemala to be part of the first countries to enter the negotiation round, to prevent another country from taking the lead and putting us at an additional disadvantage, compared to what we already have with Mexico.
While the tariffs are maintained for Guatemala in 10% and those of Mexico remain at zero, the companies that export to the United States will continue to lose money, and many jobs are at risk. It should be remembered that the added value of Guatemalan exports is very low, and that tariff makes it technically loss companies; That is, it is impossible to pay that tariff.
Will bilateral negotiations or the CAFTA-DR Treaty region?
Bilateral relations will be initiated, but Guatemala’s position is that the CAFTA-DR Free Trade Agreement is respected.
What impact have had the two months of the 10% tariff to import Guatemalan products to the United States?
Based on the amount of exports of US $ 4,600 million to the United States, and assuming Guatemala will pay 10% tariff, it can be estimated that the impact in two months would be a loss of income of US $ 80 million; and for the rest of the year, of about US $ 320 million.
Do importers in the United States continue to ask exporters to absorb that tax?
Yes, export companies that have been released from the 10%payment are very exceptional, or those where they have shared between them. We have been working under the preferential treaty of the DR-CAFTA for many years and we had never had a tariff within that agreement, but the importers had to pay it and had to move to the consumer. But here there is an important distortion of the tariff concept, because the exporter is being loaded. That condition has arisen because Mexico produces the same products as us, but without tariff. So, the threat is: “If you do not take care of the tariff, I buy in Mexico.”
What products are being more impacted?
Mainly those of costumes and textiles, bananas, coffee, sugar, fruits and vegetables. These represent about 80% of Guatemala’s export products.
What are the factors that are affecting competitiveness to export currently?
The export sector is being seriously threatened. This 10% tariff came to aggravate the competitive position of exporters and put the rope around the neck, since, in addition, we are experiencing a loss of structural competitiveness.
In summary: the minimum wage rose 10% in January; The United States tariffs were implemented in April, also at 10%; And buyers are asking that we absorb that cost. Quetzal has appreciated 3% recently, although in a long -term perspective, it has been 30% in real value.
Apart, we have access problems to Europe due to the regulations of the Green Pact, and exports to China are closed.
The second point of loss of competitiveness comes from the poor state of road infrastructure and congestion in the ports, which has been experienced and aggravated in the last 10 years.
In addition, also in the last 10 years, Asian competition in all items has intensified.
And finally, we are also touching us to pay early taxes through the solidarity tax (ISO).
We have lived a loss of competitiveness and a long -term destruction that is not seen, since great agribusiness was lost on the southern coast in the last 25 years.
There has been a destruction in slow chamber. The worst thing is that this loss of competitiveness is already reaching the new export products that arose since the 1990s, with the beginning of AGEXPORT: the exports of peas, broccoli, vegetables, berries, new fruits and others. That wave of new agricultural products is beginning to be affected and put at risk by all those elements that go beyond the tariff. That is, the tariff was like putting the rope to exporters.
What is the current situation with exports to China and what implications can the presidential visit to Taiwan have?
The China market closed for the Foreign Minister’s visit to the inauguration of Taiwan’s president last year. Now, with the president’s visit, it could be something more offensive to China. So, there will surely be repercussions. We do not know where they will come, but the ambassador has stated that the country is willing to face the consequences. Clearly, Guatemala is playing his role as an ally of the United States.
They are factors that should weigh in the treatment that the United States should give us regarding tariffs, since we are giving true signs of being a serious ally.
For the negotiation of the tariffs were they told if it could be by product?
The position of our institution is that it must be negotiated by maintaining the tariff preferences of the CAFTA Treaty, and not by product.
We cannot start negotiating product by product because we would then benefit some sectors and harm others.
What are your priorities in front of AGEXPORT to incorporate new markets and products?
By 2035, we want to increase exports of products and services of the US $ 19 billion that were exported in 2024, to US $ 35 billion, through three axes:
- Increase exports generated by attraction of foreign investment. Here we are waiting for US $ 5 billion in new exports.
- Develop new export clusters, to which we bet US $ 8 billion.
- Organic growth with 4% per year, which could reach US $ 16 billion.
What clusters can they be?
In sectors of opportunity: automotive, auto parts, medical products industry. In the agricultural area: industrialization of rubber and latex, industrialization of chocolate, growth of avocado exports and other new fruits such as mangostan and Rambután.
In services, we believe that there are still space in the industry of call centersin Fintech and various types of services: financial, creative design and advertising, and administrative activities.
In addition, Guatemala has one of the lowest export aggregate values in the region. Part of the strategy is to increase it, since that puts us in complicated situations in the field of tariffs and others.
This is a sector that is being at risk. If things do not change, you can miss. There are industries that do not endure, because added value is very low, such as agriculture, costumes and textiles. These sectors do not endure the tariff or more appreciation of the exchange rate.
Another part of the strategy is to move towards a quadrant of new products and new markets.
What progress is there in market diversification?
First, the opportunity to grow in exports to Mexico is giant. Now only 4% of our exports are directed to that country, mainly by non -tariff barriers that impose us.
Second, Taiwan has a very strong political relationship with Guatemala. We would like to see more investment and more trade from Taiwan. President Arévalo has already reported the microchips project, and represents a tremendous opportunity.
There is also Israel, a friend of Guatemala for many years, with much knowledge in agriculture and technology.
🇺🇸 EE. UU. It will require confidentiality to initiate tariff negotiation with Guatemala. 🇬🇹
The country does not confirm whether it received the key document to begin the process.Read more on the link.https://t.co/2oei9hgwmz pic.twitter.com/HB1CTDZHOH
– Free press (@prensa_libre) June 12, 2025
Another is South Korea. Missing the FTA, but they already have a presence in the Guatemalan textile industry. There is a Korean community that can motivate other sectors to settle in the country.
The amount of exports of the first four -month period of 2025 grew 11.2% year -on -year. How do they observe that behavior and what expectations have for the rest of the year?
There is a price and volume growth. It may be that it obeys an anticipation of exports by the new import tariffs of the United States. Exports are being advanced to uncertainty about what may happen.
The rebound that prices, especially coffee and sugar is also influencing.