One of the immediate consequences of the conflict between Israel and Iran began to perceive in Guatemala with the rise in the prices of the gallon of gasoline and diesel, so consumers must pay more for these products.
The price of the upper and regular gasoline gallon rose Q0.80 and the diesel, Q1, confirmed the Guatemalan Association of Gasoline Expendors (AGEG), adjustment that is associated with the registered increase in the international price of oil barrel, which has also reacted upwards since Thursday, June 12.
In addition, other effects that could impact Guatemala are expected, such as international trade, logistics and global tourism, in the midst of international conflict and the instability and uncertainty that it generates in the international environment.
On the other hand, if a high fire is achieved and a dialogue between the countries involved begins, international oil prices could resume the previous trend and return to normal.
Generalized rise
The pump price of the upper gasoline gallon reached Q30.59, that of the regular to Q29.09 and that of the diesel to Q25.49, in the modality of self -service in stations of the metropolitan area, confirmed Enrique Meléndez, executive director of the AGEG.
The behavior of the international market for the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East begins to be reflected, said the manager when they were consulted.
He added that each of the products has its international market and, for being raw materials (Commodities), diesel showed a greater increase than gasoline, which could be linked to a greater demand for that energy.
According to AGEG, this Wednesday the increase in service stations was generalized.
Meléndez said three scenarios are handled on the behavior of oil price:
- The current scenario is moderate, because there is no interruption in the oil supply (production), and the movement recorded in the last week responds to risk premiums.
- The second scenario, which could aggravate the situation, is associated with the interruption of the offer due to a major escalation in the fighting that involves other oil -producing countries, as well as the closure of the Ormuz Strait.
- The third scenario foresees a decrease in conflict and the return to previous prices.
Uncertainty generates early purchases
Jorge García Chiu, former Minister of Energy and Mines, declared that the price of the barrel of crude oil registered in the latest sessions, especially of WTI – reference for Guatemala – responds to the uncertainty regarding the management of future purchases by the chain companies.
Buyers, before this type of incidents, They take advantage of current prices to ensure orders for the future, What presses upward prices, he said.
He reiterated that at the moment the global production of oil and market conditions have not changed significantly, but an instability period is entered by the actors involved in the oil trade.
“The price of the barrel of crude oil registered in the last sessions, especially of the WTI – reference for Guatemala – responds to uncertainty regarding the management of future purchases by the companies of the chain”
Jorge García Chiu, former Minister of Energy and Mines
In general, early acquisitions are used to guarantee a solid supply in the future.
In the area where the conflict occurs – which involves Iran, oil producer – it was logical that the price reacts preventively and that companies seek to ensure crude oil through extraordinary purchases. In addition, there is pressure on the passage of oil ships in the Ormuz Strait before any eventuality.
“If a truce is achieved, prices could stabilize immediately. Everything depends on a stop to the fire,” he concluded.
“Tourists prefer not to travel”
Andreas Kuestermann, manager of the Sustainable Tourism Commission of the Guatemalan Association of Exporters (AGEXPORT), declared that the global industry already begins to perceive specific effects.
He exemplified that many commercial airlines already announce the reduction of air traffic and connectivity, which affects international trips and, with it, the entire value chain.
Under that scenario, he said that Guatemala can rely on internal tourism while stabilizing international conflicts in the Middle East, as well as the rise in the price of oil. During the geopolitical conflict, tourists prefer not to separate from their countries, he said.
He reiterated that the tourism industry also perceives effects due to political, economic and migratory decisions of the United States.