The entrance of currency through family remittances in Guatemala returned to Show bullish behavior during the first semester, Situation that would be related to immigration policies in the United States and the recent approval of the 1% tax to transfers, which will enter into force on January 1, 2026.
In June, the exchange balance registered an increase in remittances: the income amounted to US $ 2,219.3 million, which represents an increase of US $ 458.7 million (26.1%) compared to June 2024, when US $ 1,760.6 million were reported.
In May, the indicator stood at US $ 2 thousand 281.1 million, a behavior attributed to dates such as Mother’s Day, when migrants send more resources to their families.
Double digit growth
Álvaro González Ricci, president of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), explained to Free press That, in accumulated terms, the entrance of currencies for boss to June was US $ 12,127.7 million (about Q93 thousand 377 million), which represents an increase of US $ 1,1,856.3 million (18.1%) compared to the same period of 2024, when the variation was 6.4%.
This extraordinary income observed in the first 180 days of the year is intended, in part, to consumption at home.
González Ricci indicated that, in June, both the amount and the frequency of shipments increased considerably, and that the daily average exceeded US $ 93.8 million, a trend also observed in May.
The Banguat maintains the estimate that, at the end of 2025, Guatemala could receive US $ 23,466 million (about Q180 thousand 688 million) and, in 2026, US $ 24 thousand 618 million (Q189 thousand 555 million), which would be equivalent to a 19% participation of GDP.
What effects are expected for the tax?
An analysis of the Executive Secretariat of the Central American Monetary Council (SECMCA) warns that The remittance tax would have a significant impact on the region.
This lien would especially affect migrants who are not US citizens, including undocumented, permanent residents and title holders (such as H-1B, H-2A, H-2B, F-1, among others).
The report indicates that the tax would make transfers increasing and could reduce its volume, with consumption effects, migration to informal channels and, eventually, a new migratory wave.
Direct affectation
Like the analysis carried out by the Banguat, the SECMCA report details that the tax would affect about 4.2 million people in Central America, including three million undocumented migrants, legal residents and temporary workers.
“The tax would make transfers increasing and could reduce its volume, with consumption effects, migration to informal channels and, eventually, a new migratory wave“
Central American Monetary Council Report
American citizens would be exempt, but must verify their status to obtain tax exemption or tax credit, which generates concerns about privacy and bureaucracy.
“By absorbing the cost, the senders would possibly reduce the amounts sent, so that the receiving families would receive less money in the Central American countries,” the report warns.
Informal channels
The implementation of the tax could push migrants to unregulated methods, which would increase the risk of fraud and money laundering, and would benefit criminal organizations, according to the report.
In addition, the increase in costs would limit shipping capacity, especially among low -income migrants, who would opt for informal channels to avoid tax.
Impact by country
The SECMCA projects various economic impacts, since remittances represent between 19% and 26% of GDP in Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.
Among the possible effects include:
- Unfraint of economic growth: The reduction in remittances would affect family consumption and sectors such as retail trade, agriculture and small businesses.
- Increased migration: the loss of income could promote a new migratory wave, according to Inter-American Dialogue, which foresees an increase in the intention to migrate in the next two years.
- Financial risks: change towards informal channels, such as cryptocurrencies or effective, would increase the risk of illegal activities, hindering state control.
- Impact on the transfers industry: formal companies could see their income reduced, which would affect fiscal collection in the USA. And limit financial innovation in the region.
- Diplomatic tensions: the measure could tighten the relations between the US and the Central American countries, given the high dependence of remittances as a source of currency.