The pressure on domestic consumption and the risks to the country’s macroeconomic stability are some of the risks identified by the Foundation for the Development of Guatemala (Fundesa) when analyzing the new executive order of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, which could affect the sending of remittances to Guatemala.
In addition to the alert, Fundesa recommends that the Government of Guatemala implement actions and proposes a strategy articulated in three axes. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Minex) reported that it will maintain monitoring of the provisions issued by the Treasury Department and will hold diplomatic dialogue to emphasize the impact that the restrictions would have on the Guatemalan economy and families that depend on remittances.
Provisions and effects
The new provision, identified as “Restoring Integrity to America’s Financial System”, was issued on May 19 and instructs the authorities of that country to reinforce identification controls, financial monitoring and credit evaluation of migrants without work authorization.
Although the regulations are internal to the United States, Fundesa and, separately, Guido Rodas, former Minister of Economy, warn that Guatemala could face significant economic consequences due to the weight of remittances in the country.
According to data from the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), remittances increased their participation in 2025 to 20.7% of the gross domestic product, the year in which US$25,530.2 million were recorded.
These are figures that each year exceed their historical record and sustain the consumption of millions of households, says Fundesa, which considers that the concern transcends the immigration area. He explained that a reduction of between 5% and 10% in the flow of remittances would have sensitive macroeconomic repercussions for Guatemala.
Among other effects, it mentions pressures on the exchange rate, decreased consumption in rural areas dependent on remittances and lower dynamism of credit and tax collection.
It identifies, for example, that the most vulnerable departments would be Alta Verapaz, Huehuetenango, San Marcos and Quiché, where much of the economic activity depends on money sent from the US.
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Another impact is the possible limitation of access to credit for undocumented migrants in the US, especially in mortgage, automobile and consumer loans, which could reduce their savings and investment capacity, with indirect effects for Guatemala.
Separately, Rodas agreed that, taking into account that the majority of migrants do not have legal status in the United States and that Guatemala does not have TPS, the impact will be a slowdown in the growth of remittances, as well as the International Monetary Reserves (IRM) and a contraction of private consumption, which represents more than 75% of GDP on the spending side. This will affect the GDP growth rate, he added.
“Something very worrying is that remittances cover the trade deficit, which in 2025 was US$19 billion, and if these remittances contract, we are going to have serious problems in the exchange rate and the decrease in RMI,” said Rodas.
In his opinion, these effects will force the projections to be revised, although he estimates that the greatest impact will be reflected in the GDP in 2027.
Rodas added that the financial sector could be affected as an exchange intermediary, since it is estimated that the purchase and sale of remittances generated gross income of around US$8.5 billion.
Official screenings
Guatemala’s economy will be above the regional average in 2026, with a projected growth of 4.1%, driven by the resilience of its productive sectors, exchange rate stability and the growth of remittances, according to the president of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), Álvaro González Ricci, on Thursday, May 21 during a business meeting before the Official Chamber of Commerce of Spain in Guatemala.
González indicated that domestic consumption continues to be supported by the historical income of family remittances, which are estimated to close in 2026 at around US$27 billion, and added that they expect a growth of 5% compared to 2025. He added that the amount of remittances that the country receives exceeds the total state budget.
Deadlines and effects
The implementation of the provisions will be gradual, between 60 and 180 days, and in that same period their effects will be perceived.
60 days after the issuance, the Treasury advisory for financial institutions would come into force, which consists of a formal alert on the risks of using the financial system by people without work authorization.
During that time, the CFPB’s credit risk guidance will also go into effect, which states that potential deportation and loss of income may be factors in evaluating the repayment capacity of borrowers without work authorization.
Within 90 days, other provisions will take effect, such as reforms to the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA), which include the collection of information on immigration status when relevant to assess risks of illicit activity.
In 180 days, the client identification programs (CIP) will be reviewed, in order to strengthen identification mechanisms and evaluate the risk of foreign consular cards.
Fundesa also identified other possible effects:
- New financial verification requirements could make it difficult for Guatemalan migrants to access the banking system in the US.
- Greater controls are established on transfers, ITIN, digital platforms and accounts linked to people without work authorization.
- The use of foreign consular license plates as financial identification will be evaluated.
- Additional restrictions could lead banks and remittance companies to close accounts or block transactions, which would affect the sending of money to Guatemala.
- These measures could increase the use of informal mechanisms, with greater risks of fraud and lower amounts for families.
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Consular cards
Fundesa explained that in 180 days the client identification programs will be reviewed, including the risk of foreign consular cards, such as the Guatemalan consular registration.
The entity warned that the order mentions the risk of these cards, used by thousands of Guatemalans in the US to access financial services. Its possible debunking as an identity verification (KYC) instrument “would have a direct impact on the ability of the diaspora to formally send remittances.”
They recommend actions
Fundesa proposes that the Government implement a strategy in three axes: diplomatic-bilateral, regulatory-financial and strengthening formal channels.
It recommends activating bilateral dialogue with the US, through Minex and the Guatemalan Embassy in Washington DC, to defend the recognition of consular registration.
It also suggests managing a regional position with Honduras, El Salvador and Mexico to present a joint position to the US Treasury during the consultation period on the BSA reforms, among other actions.
Minex
Minex indicated to Prensa Libre that it will maintain constant monitoring of the provisions of the United States Department of the Treasury in the next 60 days.
Likewise, he will hold diplomatic dialogue with the authorities of that country to emphasize the macroeconomic impact that any significant restriction would have on the Guatemalan economy and the families that depend on these transfers.
Regarding the Guatemalan Consular Identification Card (TICG), it is currently suspended because the Foreign Ministry is working on an improvement, which will include the delivery of this document on the same day; However, there are other options for compatriots to identify themselves, such as a passport.
collateral damage
Jahir Dabroy, coordinator of the Sociopolitical Research Department of the Social Studies Research Association (Asies), said that the possible effect on remittances would be collateral damage, since the provision focuses on money laundering and suspicious activities.
He explained that shipments of remittances from Guatemalan migrants are regular, which facilitates their identification within the US financial system, although the measures will imply greater monitoring of suspicious activities.
He indicated that Guatemalans usually send one or two monthly remittances of between US$300 and US$800, amounts that are not high.
He recalled that years ago there was talk of “smurfing,” a practice in which shipments are fragmented to launder money, but he pointed out that these amounts are not significant for organized crime.
He added that, although there could be impacts, migrants will look for alternatives to support their families.
“Migrants are very intelligent to move objectively and try to identify options,” he said.
Problem would mainly be for employers
According to the Asíes analyst, the impact would be less on the sending of remittances, since migrants will look for options in the offer of services in the US; Those who have problems with their documentation could even turn to third parties to send money.
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However, he warned that the new controls could create more difficulties for employers in the United States, who will have to justify the use of their resources, especially if they hire irregular migrants.
Regarding consular cards, he recalled that Guatemala no longer issues them and that they are not official travel documents, so the passport continues to be the main identification option.
He concluded that it will be necessary to observe the development of these provisions in the coming months.