The rains will begin to gradually reduce extreme temperatures in Guatemala, according to the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (Insivumeh), which also predicts a more extensive and severe Dog Day this year due to the effects of the El Niño phenomenon. The institution confirmed that in 2026 only one heat wave has been recorded, during which Zacapa reached 43.8 degrees.
According to Cleofás Culajay, Insivumeh forecaster, during the weekend and next week the rains will begin to occur more consistently in different regions of the country, which will help regulate the warm environment registered in recent weeks.
“The rainy season is already established. Normally there is a warm atmosphere during the morning; however, in the afternoon the cloudiness increases and this prevents solar radiation from heating the Earth’s surface,” explained Culajay.
The forecaster indicated that the rains will favor a decrease in maximum temperatures, mainly in areas where the heat has been more intense, such as the Eastern region and part of the north of the country.
Zacapa registered 43.8 degrees
The Insivumeh pointed out that during this year the highest temperature recorded in Guatemala reached 43.8 degrees in Zacapa, one of the highest values recently reported in the country.
Culajay explained that this temperature occurred during the only heat wave recorded in 2026, a phenomenon that mainly affected sectors of Oriente and Petén.
“The highest temperatures were recorded in Zacapa. The 43.8 degrees already represent a fairly high temperature,” he stated.
In Guatemala City, meanwhile, thermometers reached up to 32 degrees, when the usual temperature for the time ranges between 27 and 29 degrees.
The specialist added that, as the rainy season progresses, temperatures could remain between 26 and 27 degrees in the capital.
Heat wave
The Insivumeh clarified that Guatemala is not currently experiencing a heat wave, despite the high thermal sensation that persists in different sectors of the country.
According to Culajay, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines a heat wave as a period of two or more days with abnormally high temperatures for a certain region.
“This year, quite high temperatures were recorded in April, which was the first heat wave. However, we are not currently in a heat wave, because the temperatures, although high, are normal for the time,” he explained.
He added that in regions such as Oriente and Petén, a heat wave is considered when temperatures exceed 40 degrees.
Currently, although some areas report values close to 39 and 40 degrees, the conditions still correspond to the warm season prior to the consolidation of the rains.
Severe and extensive dog days
Insivumeh climate projections suggest that the Dog Days of 2026 could be more extensive and severe due to the possible strengthening of the El Niño phenomenon during this year.
According to Culajay, statistically the Dog Days usually occur between July 10 and 15, as well as from August 5 to 20; However, this year there could be longer periods without rain.
“It is expected that this year there will be a somewhat extended Dog Day, as occurred approximately in 2015,” he indicated.
The specialist recalled that in recent years the Dog Days were interrupted by rain events; However, in 2026 there could be periods of between one and two weeks without precipitation and with a persistent warm atmosphere.
“For this year it is expected that the Dog Days could be pronounced, having a week or 15 days without rain and with a warm environment,” he added.
Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic
While Guatemala faces projections of a more severe Canicula, the National Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States predicts a hurricane season in the Atlantic below the historical average.
According to the US agency, during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, between 8 and 14 named storms could form, of which between 3 and 6 would reach hurricane category and between 1 and 3 would be major hurricanes.
“NOAA is forecasting a below-normal season for 2026,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs.
NOAA indicated that there is a 55% chance that the season will be below normal, a 35% chance that it will remain close to average and just a 10% chance that it will exceed the historical average.
However, Jacobs cautioned that a less active season does not necessarily mean less danger, as a single hurricane can cause severe damage.
The Child
The NOAA forecasts coincide with the scenarios observed by Insivumeh regarding the strengthening of the El Niño phenomenon.
According to the US agency, there is an 82% chance that El Niño will establish itself between May and June and a 98% chance that it will occur before the end of the year.
NOAA explained that El Niño consists of an anomalous warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon that modifies weather patterns and reduces cyclonic activity in the Atlantic by making the formation of tropical storms difficult.
However, in the central and eastern Pacific the opposite effect occurs, since El Niño favors greater cyclonic activity.
The US agency predicts between 15 and 22 named storms in the eastern Pacific, in addition to between 9 and 14 hurricanes and between 5 and 9 major hurricanes.
“Super Niño” is not an official term
Regarding the term “super Niño”, recently spread on social networks, Insivumeh clarified that there is no official scientific definition for that expression.
Culajay explained that the concept arose due to forecasts of an increase of up to two degrees in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean.
“A ‘super Niño’ has not been defined as such. It is a term that has arisen due to the expected high temperatures on the surface of the Pacific Ocean,” he said.
With information from EFE
*Stay up to date with the Now newsletter. Key information at the moment it happens. Subscribe here.