Criminal networks would look for new ways to operate in the face of the new anti-money laundering law

The entry into force of the mechanisms contemplated in decree 15-2026, Comprehensive Law for the Prevention and Repression of Money Laundering or Other Assets and the Financing of Terrorism, strengthens controls to preventr money laundering.

In the short term, a “rearrangement” is expected resulting from the application of the approved reforms. Among the main changes are the new guidelines on the final beneficiary (UBO), the identification of Politically Exposed Persons (PEP), reinforced control over contractors and suppliers of the State, the registry of shareholders, expanded due diligence and greater supervisory powers of the Special Verification Intendancy (IVE).

These elements are considered fundamental for the dismantling of complex structures used to hide or mobilize resources of illicit origin.

Although the law strengthens controls over operations and resources of illicit origin, it does not completely eliminate the risk of money laundering.

Figureheads remain a risk

In this context, Guillermo Díaz Castellanos, coordinator of the Research Institute in Sociohumanist Sciences of the Rafael Landívar University (URL), explained that the figure of the final beneficiary will allow the destination of the money to be traced more accurately. However, he warned that this tool has limitations, since front men can be used to hide those who really benefit of resources.

He added that the scope of the law is limited to the beneficiary’s immediate family circle. In addition, companies can be used offshore or out of place to make it difficult to identify the real beneficiaries. The law makes money laundering difficult, but does not prevent it completely.

Front companies under greater control

In cases of simulation of fictitious companies, especially those used in public works, independent political analyst Douglas González emphasized that one of the main novelties of the new law is that it requires identifying the person who really controls or benefits from a company, even if it is hidden behind partners, family members, trusts or complex corporate structures.

In addition, contractors and suppliers of the Stateare subject to greater scrutinyespecially when officials or politically exposed people intervene.

“This makes it difficult to use paper construction companies or front companies to hide the origin or destination of public funds,” he added.

Law strengthens financial traceability

The executive director of the Chamber of Finance of Guatemala (CFG), José Córdova, clarified that The law was not designed to persecute an economic sector, a specific activity or certain public officials. Therefore, it is exclusively up to the competent authorities to determine, in each specific case, whether a crime has been committed.

“What this legislation does is strengthen the mechanisms of transparency, identification of final beneficiaries, due diligence and traceability of operations, regardless of who participates in them,” he highlighted.

He added that the new law significantly strengthens the ability of the system to identify the people who actually control or benefit from a company, by incorporating more robust rules on beneficial ownership, due diligence and risk-based approach.

“In practice, this makes it difficult to use shell companies, complex corporate structures or interposed third parties to hide the identity of those behind a financial or commercial operation,” Córdova noted.

In addition, the law expands and modernizes the obligations for monitoring, analysis and reporting of suspicious operations, which increases the ability to detect structures used to hide or mobilize resources of illicit origin.

The effectiveness of these measures will depend on their adequate implementation by the competent institutions and the obligated subjects.

Controls will force us to reinvent ourselves

Regarding the trend that could be observed and a possible reaction of multicriminal groups, Hugo Maul, analyst at the National Economic Research Center (Cien), stated that, from the perspective of political economy and the study of mafias, There is evidence that organized crime groups dedicated to these illicit activities behave like any businessman: they seek to make profitable their assets, specialized knowledge, skills and competencies.

Therefore, the fact that a law changes does not necessarily imply that those who participate in illicit activities abandon operations in which they have invested resources, technology, machinery, capital, contacts and information networks.

“They are going to do what any legal business person does. A change in market conditions is to try to innovate, adjust, find new ways, and there, generally speaking, I would expect that even new ways may emerge,” Maul said.

Díaz Castellanos considers it very likely that those who dedicate themselves to money laundering have already devised new ways of operating. In addition, he pointed out that money laundering is a crime that is difficult to prove.

For his part, González emphasized that the reforms make it difficult to use front men, bank accounts controlled by third parties, opaque corporations and other mechanisms used to justify assets of dubious origin.

Likewise, he pointed out that greater control over transfers, final beneficiaries and unusual operations reduces the spaces to mobilize illicit money within the financial system without leaving documentary traces.

Although no system completely eliminates money laundering, the new legislation significantly increases the cost and risk of engaging in these practices.

Illicit networks will adapt

Given a possible rearrangement, Díaz Castellanos considers it likely that the structures dedicated to money laundering will move to smaller, but more frequent operations, or to activities that are more difficult to control. In his opinion, the law increases the cost of corruption and illicit enrichment, but does not eliminate them.

For his part, González considered reasonable to expect a stage of adaptation.

“Some networks could fragment operations into smaller amounts, use more cash, resort to more sophisticated brokers or transfer part of their activities to less regulated sectors. A migration could also be observed towards international structures or more complex mechanisms of asset concealment,” he emphasized.

However, the most likely immediate effect will be an increase in caution among those who previously used companies linked to Politically Exposed Persons (PEP).