The authorities of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) reported this Thursday, June 18, that, after international agreements, a drop in the international price of a barrel of crude oil is projected.
They indicated that the markets have reacted positively this Thursday and a decrease in inflation is expected.
Johny Gramajo, economic manager of the Bank of Guatemala, reported on the signing of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran for a formal ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
He added that it was scheduled to be signed in Geneva, Switzerland, this June 19; However, on Thursday night The memorandum of understanding was signed in Paris, electronically, by President Donald Trump, and had already been signed by the president of Iran, so, basically, the process was formalized.
Gramajo explained that this signature does not mean the end of the war, but rather a partial agreement, since there are three months to finally negotiate peace, which would be the formal agreement that would have to be validated by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), through a binding resolution of that organization. On that basis, they observe a positive market reaction.
He highlighted that this Thursday Wall Street opened with a gain of around 1%, and that the price of oil closed on Wednesday at around US$76 per barrel; However, the market opening this Thursday was US$77.
“This is positive in the sense that basically the issues that we saw about imported inflation in the case of Guatemala, but above all the increases in costs associated with energy due to the increase in fuel, well, one would think that this would tend to decrease,” he added.
He indicated that there is still some margin of uncertainty because it is not the final agreement, but the signing of the memorandum gives a period of rest, since, according to the graphs, the price could return to a normal situation in June.
He clarified that the risks are always there, although what was signed represents a relief on an international scale.
The oil market is closely watching the development of the pact between Washington and Tehran. Still, US President Donald Trump did not rule out bombing again “if they don’t behave.”
To read more: What does the US-Iran deal that ends the war include?
In the text released by Washington, the two countries agree to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reach a definitive agreement on the Iranian nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Despite optimism about the agreement, investors remain concerned about oil reserves, after millions of barrels were released to alleviate the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its forecasts for world oil consumption by 2026 by another 700,000 barrels a day and warned that the oil industry will take months to recover.
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