In the third year of government, the Technical Budget Directorate (DTP) projects an execution of 91.1% at the end of the current fiscal year, for Q153 thousand 673 million, while continuing with the preparation of the project of the General Budget of State Income and Expenditures for 2027.
Although the execution will be around the average of recent years, the Ministry of Communications, Infrastructure and Housing (CIV) will register the lowest percentage, with 78.9%, equivalent to Q6 thousand 146 million, according to the document from the Ministry of Finance (Minfin) presented to deputy Orlando Blanco, member of the Finance Commission.
The technical estimate was prepared with a current budget of Q168 thousand 715 million, according to the DTP.
The projection means that the State will stop providing goods and services to the population by not executing the entire budget approved by the Congress of the Republic, as explained by deputy Orlando Blanco.
“There is a risk that some Q15 billion will not be executed this year, as a result of underexecutions that affect essential services for the population, such as justice, security, employment, health, education and better roads,” he added.
CIV lags behind
In addition to the Ministry of Communications, Infrastructure and Housing (CIV), another of the portfolios that projects lower execution is the Ministry of Culture and Sports, with 78.4% and Q807 million executed. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food (Maga) projects an execution of 82.5%, equivalent to Q1,710 million, and the Ministry of Social Development (Mides), 85.8%, with Q3,232 million, according to the official estimate.
For Obligations Charged by the Treasury, an execution of Q57,382 million is estimated. In the case of the secretariats and other departments of the Executive Agency, the projection amounts to Q2 thousand 82 million, equivalent to 96.2%.
The only item that will reach 100% execution, according to the DTP, will be the service of the public debt, for Q21 thousand 79 million.
Icefi sees sources of underexecution
Ricardo Barrientos, executive director of the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi), indicated that the estimate for the closure of the execution is very similar to that of previous years: “It is neither extraordinarily low nor extraordinarily high.”
He clarified that the problem is in the details. Although the global estimate is 91.1%, there are areas with difficulties in executing the budget. As an example, he pointed out that it will be necessary to observe the execution of the CIV, Culture and Sports, Agriculture, Social Development and, probably, Environment and Natural Resources, since, in his opinion, That’s where the main problems are concentrated.
“91% does not look bad compared to the average. One can read a drop of optimism and, if these are the official estimates, with great regret it must be said that the CIV continues to have problems. This is where debates arise about whether the Directorate of Priority Road Projects (Dipp) has the capacity to execute the investment in infrastructure. There it must be said that this government has very serious problems in its third year of administration,” he emphasized.
The director of Icefi added that another relevant aspect is the item of Obligations Charged by the Treasury and the projection of execution of the Q15,400 million assigned to the Departmental Development Councils (Codedes), whose execution, in mid-July, was 16%.
“I highly doubt that the execution of the Codedes this year will exceed 80%. They manage twice as many resources as the CIV for public investment and infrastructure, and one can anticipate that this percentage will not be exceeded,” he stressed.
2027 budget advances
This week the process of preparing the project for the General Budget of State Income and Expenditures for 2027 continues. Each of the ministries must present their budget ceilings based on the priorities of their spending programs.
On June 19, during the development of the Open Budget, a spending ceiling proposal for Q181,563 million was presented, with a focus on priority spending and compliance with presidential goals, as well as a warning about the fiscal risks associated with the El Niño phenomenon and the rise in the price of oil.
With the information presented by the ministries, the Technical Budget Directorate (DTP) will prepare the final version of the budget project, which must be presented no later than September 2.
According to deputy Orlando Blanco, within the framework of the discussion of the draft budget for 2027, which amounts to Q14 billion more than the current one, this technical debate will be raised.