Municipalities that previously had a lower crime incidence are experiencing a increase in homicides and other crimesa phenomenon that authorities attribute to the displacement of criminal structures after operations carried out in the metropolitan area and Escuintla.
The most notable case is Amatitlanwhere homicides increased 130% during the first half of 2026: they went from 23 to 53according to figures presented by the researcher from the National Economic Research Center (HUNDRED) David Casasola.
During the program Direct Impactfrom Guatevisión, authorities, specialists and panelists analyzed the transfer of violence to different municipalities, the variations in the number of homicides and the need to strengthen police intelligenceinstitutional coordination and the presence of security forces.
Operations displace criminal structures
The Minister of the Interior, Marco Antonio Villeda, explained during a press conference that the authorities have detected an increase in criminal incidence in Sanarate, El Progreso; Palencia and Villa Canales, Guatemala; and Nuns, Jalapa.
“In Sanarate, crime incidence rates have increased and Sanarate was a place, for example, where criminal violence was not so high.”Villeda declared.
According to the minister, this mobilization has produced a greater impact on the crime rates in the municipalities near the areas where the operations were concentrated.
“Having implemented the Centinela Escuintla Plan, this generated a displacement of criminals to nearby places such as Amatitlán, Villa Nueva itself and Villa Canales.”, he stated.
Villeda added that Nuns, Jalapahas also been affected by a higher incidence of criminal activities. The authorities maintain that the structures look for sectors with less police presence or where security controls still do not have the same intensity.
Homicides increase 130%
In an interview, Casasola explained that the municipality of Guatemala registered a reduction in 115 homicides compared to the same period in 2025.
He decline in the capital contrasts with the behavior from Amatitlán, where the main increase occurred within the department of Guatemala.
“Amatitlán has grown by 130% the number of homicides that have occurred in that municipality”, indicated Casasola.
The researcher specified that Amatitlán counted 53 homicides during the first half of 2026in front of the 23 registered in the compared period.
The difference represents 30 more homicides and is equivalent to an approximate increase in 130.4%according to the figures presented by Casasola during the interview.
Casasola also mentioned specific variations in San Antonio La Paz, El Progreso; Nueva Concepción, Escuintla; and the head of Chimaltenango.
Intelligence and coordination
After the presentation of the report, the panelists from Direct Impact They pointed out that criminal structures can reorganize and move to places with less presence of the authorities.
One of the analysts stated that the pressure exercised through raids and operations can cause groups to move to other municipalities and even to different departments.
In the opinion of the panelist, the authorities must determine where the structures are moving, how they operate, who provides them with support and what links they maintain in the new territories.
“They have to do intelligence work to collect all this information: where they are going, how they are operating from there and what people are helping them.”, he expressed.
The analyst added that this work requires coordination between the Ministry of the Interiorthe PNChe Public Ministrymunicipalities and departmental authorities.
“It is not only the fact of going to El Gallito and grabbing them, but also seeing where they are going, why they are leaving and who they are leaving with.”, he stated.
Another panelist described as worrying the increase in 130% in Amatitlán and stated that the violence affects both the municipalities of the department of Guatemala and different areas of the country.
In the interview it was indicated that Guatemala ranks 17th among 195 countries in violence rates.
“Here they are playing cat and mouse. The structures and hitmen operate in certain municipalities, they see that the Police arrive and they move to another,” he stated.
Among the measures proposed by the panel are the strengthening of PNCcoordination with the Army, a greater territorial presence of security forces and the review of criminal consequences for people prosecuted for serious crimes.
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