President Donald Trump wants Latin American countries to approach Washington’s orbit, replicating Monroe doctrine, when the United States claimed the western hemisphere as its domain.
This week, the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, receives in Beijing the president of Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and other high positions in Latin America and the Caribbean, to emphasize that China intends to maintain a firm position in that region. Many Latin American governments also want to keep Beijing on their side, mainly as an economic partner, but for some as well as counterweight to American power, experts said.
“What the peoples of Latin America and the Caribbean seek independence and self -determination, not the so -called ‘New Doctrine Monroe’,” the Vice Minister of Chinese Foreign Affairs, Miao Deyu, according to the newspaper of the People in the American continent.
The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has said that the Trump government “will put our region, the American continent, first”, and his first trip abroad as secretary went to Panama, Guatemala and other countries in the region. But Trump’s overwhelming tariffs and their threats to seize the Panama Canal have worried the leaders of Latin America, especially in countries that already distrust Washington.
Although Trump is not mentioned by name in the official statements of XI meetings with Lula, and possibly with other Latin American officials, the involvement will be clear.
“Lula sees China as a partner to rebalance world power, not only as a commercial partner, but as a geopolitical counterweight to US hegemony,” said Matias Spektor, professor of policy and international relations at the foundation of Getulio Vargas, a Brazilian university. “Lula’s strategy is clear: diversifying Brazil’s alliances, reducing Washington’s dependence and reaffirming Brazil as an influential leader in an increasingly multipolar world.”
However, behind closed doors, it is unlikely that China’s conversations with Lula and other Latin American and Caribbean leaders are limited to mutual admiration. Lula is the most prominent of the leaders who meet in Beijing to attend a meeting between Chinese officials and ministers of the community of Latin American and Caribbean states, or CELAC, or CELAC, a group that does not include the United States or Canada.
The president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, a former rebel left -wing leader, according to Chinese media, will also attend. But it was not clear who more would attend, these meetings with China usually attend Ministers of Foreign Affairs and other government officials.
In the last two decades, China has become a prodigious buyer of minerals and other resources from Brazil, Peru, Chile and other Latin American clients. Chinese products, including cars and appliances, have filled the markets in the region, and Chinese investments have financed bridges, dams and ports. Brazil and other large exporters of raw materials expect, in part, to repeat what happened in Trump’s first mandate, when China bought more soy, iron mineral and other Latin American products against US tariffs.
Last year, the trade of goods between China and Latin America reached almost US $ 519 billion, approximately twice the value of a decade ago, according to Chinese customs statistics.
Despite all his friendship with Beijing, Lula has increased tariffs on iron, steel and fiber optic cable, products that mostly from China. The Latin American countries are “enormously concerned” about the possibility that Chinese exporters excluded from the US market divert cheap products, flooding local manufacturers, said Ryan Berg, director of the program of the Americas of the Center for Strategic and International Studies of Washington.
“These are countries that already have a history of protectionism and are interested in protecting local jobs and industries,” Berg said in an interview. “Although many countries like Brazil maintain good relations with China, they have moved, however, almost in parallel with the United States to protect certain industries for fear that they could become landfills to, for example, Chinese steel and aluminum.”
Mexico, the second largest Latin American economy after Brazil, has so far adopted a more cautious approach when cutting China, as a reflection of its much larger commercial ties with the United States, said Enrique Dussel Peters, professor of Economics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
In fact, the diplomatic caution of Mexico hides a commercial relationship in which China is making great advances. Based largely by an increase in Chinese cars on Mexican roads, Mexico now represents around 2.4 percent of China’s total exports. This places Mexico ahead of Brazil, which has a larger population and absorbs only 1.7 percent of Chinese exports, such as the most important export market in China in Latin America.
“The Mexican elites and the government are divided into this new triangular relationship” with the United States and China, said Dussel Peters, author of Latin America, China, and Great Power Competition. “This, however, will not be enough for Mexico, taking into account China’s massive presence in Mexico.”
XI has been optimistic about the possibility of keeping Lula already many other important Latin American leaders, partly through simple persistence, and partly through continuous orders of iron ore, soybeans and other raw materials. Lula has also expressed his hope that China can help Brazil advance in new technologies, such as green space and energy.
When Xi traveled to Brazil to attend a G20 leaders summit in November, he added a state visit to that country. It is possible that this year does the same when Rio de Janeiro is expected to visit in July a summit of the BRICS developing group, founded by Brazil, Russia, India and China. Joe Biden’s only visit to Brazil as president – for the G20 summit – occurred only after having lost the presidential elections.
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“The fact that we are much closer, but we have had high -level visits less frequently than XI is an obstacle to regional prioritization and a bad signal from a strategic perspective,” Berg said. “I think that much of that will change with Rubio,” he said, noting that Rubio speaks Spanish fluently and is familiar with the region.
In the shortest term, China could focus on making more soy orders and other products to Brazil. “There is concern that China moves Brazilian manufacturers, but the general reality is clear,” said Spektor, the Brazilian academic. “China’s demand signs the economic stability of Brazil.”