Tax collection grows 8.9% but slows down, low execution in public investment and external factors slow down

Tax income statistics from January to April of this year begin to show a deceleration associated with several factors, especially external, and growth was 8.9% compared to the same period last year.

Official data indicates that tax collection, which serves to finance public spending, in the first four -month period was Q38 thousand 747 million, which means an 8.9% increase in relation to the same period of 2024, when it reached Q35 thousand 574 million.

That represents that Q3 thousand 172 million more have been charged in this fiscal year, according to the preliminary balance of the Intendance of Collection of the Superintendence of Tax Administration (SAT).

The percentage figures indicate that the growth rate has been reduced from two digits to one during the period from January to April.

In 2024, the collection closed at Q102 thousand 757 million and for this year it is projected at Q108 thousand 737 million, that is, a growth of 5.8%.

For tax

Foreign trade taxes registered a growth of 6.1% and inmates, 10%, according to the official report.

When analyzing the collection, the VAT on imports had an increase of 5% and stood at Q8 thousand 748.6 million, which is equivalent to Q420 million more than in the first four -month period of 2024. For its part, import tariff rights (DAI) reached Q1 thousand 559.9 million, with a growth rate of 12.4%.

As for internal taxes, the total was Q28 thousand 438.6 million, with a 10%growth, which represents additional Q2 thousand 580 million, since in the same period of the previous year Q25 thousand 857 million were recorded.

The Income Tax (ISR) and domestic VAT, which reflect internal consumption, maintain two digit growth rates: 11.9% and 10.8%, respectively. Both taxes are fundamental in the collection system and finance public spending.

For example, the ISR raised Q12 thousand 672 million, that is, Q1 thousand 347 million more than the Q11 thousand 325 million of 2024. As for domestic VAT, Q8 thousand 405 million were recorded, equivalent to additional Q821.9 million.

Together, both taxes total Q21 thousand 78 million, which represents 54.4% of the total amount raised in the January-April period.

In a scenario in which a problem with these two taxes will be presented, which sustain the functioning of public spending, imbalances in state finances could be generated. This would be reflected in a lower provision of goods or services, which could translate into a political crisis for social discontent. For this reason, it is essential to monitor the behavior of said taxes.

Last March, the Technical Commission of Public Finance (CTFP) warned about possible effects on the global and local economy derived from the United States commercial and migratory policy.

On that occasion, it was stated that “uncertainty persists regarding possible modifications of the United States commercial and migratory policy” and that, for the moment, the goal of collection is maintained in Q108 thousand 737 million, which will serve to finance the public budget.

What explains it?

For deputy Julio Héctor Estrada Domínguez, president of the Finance Commission of the Congress, the figures of the SAT already reflect the effects of the international situation.

According to its analysis, the growth of 8.9% in the first four -month period already indicates deceleration, because in the previous quarter it was 9% already early year was 10%. “That means that rhythm has been lowering and the goal is 8%,” he said.

“There is a reduction that has to do with the decrease in oil prices in April, which impacts VAT on imports; in addition, some problems of port capacity and mobility have reduced import dynamics. Domestic VAT is also growing slower than normal,” he added.

Another component is the uncertain panorama derived from the US tariff policy. Estrada recommended that the SAT make corresponding reviews, since, although this year’s goal is attainable, an additional effort and greater caution in the projections by 2026 will be necessary.

Statistics show that the tax on oil and fuel distribution (IDP) was Q1 thousand 562 million in the four -month period, with a growth of 6.5%, that is, Q95.9 million more than the Q1 thousand 467 million of the same period of 2024.

The legislator recalled that the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) adjusted its growth projection of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2025 to 3.8%, from the 4% initially planned. This change could influence the behavior of ISR and domestic VAT, as they reflect local economic activity.

“The change is small, but the most important thing is that it represents a turning point: instead of accelerating, the economy is slowing down. It should not be alarmed. This was already anticipated, and the investment budget should be an leverage. However, the level of public investment is below 10% of the total, and both in the departmental councils of development and in the Ministry of Communications, the execution is very low,” he explained.

In any case, he insisted that the key results will be observed in the second half of the year, particularly in public investment indicators.

External and local context

During the first four -month period of the year there were several facts that press the economy and the collection system:

• The CTFP made recommendations to the possible effects of the US commercial and migratory policy, and maintained the collection goal in Q108 thousand 737 million.
• In April, the US imposed a 10% tariff on Guatemalan products and promoted a bill to tax remittances with 5%.
• The Banguat adjusted the economic growth perspective by 2025 to 3.8%, although remittances grew 9%.
• The Government announced 5% salary adjustments for the national teaching and for workers of the Ministry of Health.
• The execution of public investment spending remains low, which impacts aggregate demand.