The 2025 cyclonic season has begun and Guatemala is not exempt of its effects. According to the forecasts of the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (Insivumeh) At least two tropical events could affect the country between May and July.
Although it cannot yet be determined if they will be depressions, tropical storms or hurricanes, the typical rains of the season are expected to significantly affect three regions in that same period.
“This first part of the rainy season could bring direct or indirect effects of at least two tropical systems at the Central American level. Its intensity cannot be defined yet, but there are conditions that warn us”Said César George, chief of meteorology at Insivumeh.
Cyclonic systems from the Caribbean, in particular, They tend to destabilize the Pacific Climatewhich increases the risk of intense rains, river floods, floods and landslides In regions such as Boca Costa, the Southwest and the center of the country.
“The strongest impact occurs when a system is formed in the Caribbean of Central America and tries to venture towards the Gulf of Mexico. This destabilizes the Pacific Zone and can severely affect regions such as the Costa Boca and the volcanic chain“George added.
In addition, Insivumeh’s climatic perspective for the May-Julio quarter reveals that areas such as the Transversal Strip from the north, southern Petén and Puerto Barrios have a projection of rains above normal.
The effects are already visible. In regions such as the southwest, they have registered between 300 and 400 millimeters of rain alone in Maywhat has saturated the soils and favored that local emergencies are registered such as river floods and floods, especially in Suchitepéquez and the volcanic chain.
Currently, an instability zone is monitored in the Tehuantepec Gulfsouth Mexico, which could evolve at low pressure or even a tropical depression in the next few days.
General forecast: an intense hurricane
As for the forecast at the regional level, the season is expected to be more active in the basin of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, where they are forecast between 15 to 17 tropical stormsof which 7 to 9 could be hurricanesand At least 3 could be greater.
Colorado University estimates that there is a 56% probability that An intense hurricane affects the Caribbean Sea, above the historical average.
Although not all systems will impact directly, it is warned that low prolonged pressures can cause strong rains and floods in Guatemala.
“It is important to take into account that in Guatemala it does not necessarily have to be affected by A tropical storm, since with just a low pressure system that it remains for a long time can generate important rains, “the Insivumeh said.
More critical months
While the first part of the season already generates concern, the months of August, September and October are historically those of greatest impact for cyclones and associated systems.
The National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction (Conred) reported that she has activated a series of prevention actions before the Cyclonic season 2025, including the identification of up to 1,800 possible shelters and the Pre position of humanitarian aid in departmental venues.
It also reinforces awareness campaigns to promote a culture of prevention and resilience in the population, stressing that disasters are not natural, but consequence of human decisions.
Although there is coordination with local authorities in high -risk areas, Conred warns that The level of community preparation remains low due to the lack of territorial planning and construction in vulnerable areas.
The main threats to the country during this season are landslides, landslides and floods, especially in the metropolitan area, the southern coast, Boca Costa and the transverse strip of the north.
In addition, the use of helicopters is expected, in coordination with the Ministry of Defense, to attend communities that could be isolated by the rains.
Temperatures
As part of the forecast, the Insivumeh also reported that the highest temperatures for the May-June-June quarter of 2025 are expected in regions such as the Pacific, Bocacosta, Caribe, North, Valleys of the East and the Transversal Strip of the North, where the average maxims could range between 26 ° C and 38 ° C. In the central and west high plateau, the values would be more moderate, between 14 ° C and 30 ° C.
Although intense heat is expected in several areas of the country, it is not estimated that temperatures reach the recorded historical ends, such as 44 ° C in La Fragua, Zacapa (1998), 42.6 ° C in Flores, Petén (2016) or 41.5 ° C in Livingston, Izabal (1998).
Cyclonic season 2025
The Insivumeh reported that the cyclonic season will begin:
- Peaceful: of the May 15 to the November 30.
- Atlantic: of the June 1 to the November 30.
- During these months the risks of heavy rains, floods and landslides due to the atmospheric conditions favorable to the development of tropical cyclones.
What are tropical cyclones?
Are Meteorological phenomena that are formed about warm oceans.
They are characterized by:
- Strong winds
- Heavy rains
- Low atmospheric pressure in its center
Also read: Why hurricanes have a name of people
Classification according to the Saffir-Simpson scale
- Tropical depression: Sustained winds below 63 km/h.
- Tropical storm: Sustained winds between 63 and 118 km/h.
- Hurricane: Sustained winds above 118 km/h.
Also read: Hurricane season of 2025 in the US: Alert for tropical storm risk in May