Despite the global economic uncertainty and the downward review of economic growth by 2025, the authorities confirmed that the tax collection forecast will remain unchanged. In addition, they recognized that the international environment could have an impact on the national economy.
The amount of income to finance the state budget, approved by Congress for the second year of Management of President Bernardo Arévalo, remains in Q148 thousand 526 million, without adjustments after the different analysis and scenarios evaluated.
The Technical Commission of Public Finance (CTFP), made up of the Bank of Guatemala, the Ministry of Finance, the Superintendence of Tax Administration (SAT) and the Secretariat of Planning and Programming of the Presidency (Segeplán), agreed last Friday, May 23, a collection goal of Q109 thousand 302 million for the central government and Q108 thousand 737 million for the tax administrator. The decision was formalized on Monday, May 26, by subscribing the respective minutes.
Fiscal balance
“Estimates in the light of the new economic growth projections made by the Bank of Guatemala, which are maintained at 3.8%, more or less 1%. We can be calm that the collection goal for this year is maintained as it appears as it appears as it appears in the current budget, and the amount continues to be Q109 thousand 302 million,” said Jonathan Menkos, Minister of Finance and President of the SAT. usual press conference in the National Palace of Culture.
He indicated that the accumulated amount of tax collection from January to date, compared to the same period last year, “continues to be strong, with a growth of 8.4%”, by presenting a brief balance of the fiscal policy, in which President Arévalo also participated.
However, he mentioned that some taxes have a growth higher than the average, such as income tax (ISR), domestic added tax (VAT) and import tariff rights (DAI), while others show a certain lag.
“Of course there is an external uncertainty. Both the Ministry of Finance and the SAT are working in tune so that this uncertainty derived from international events does not have a serious impact on the collection system,” Menkos added.
Presented a report that to May 21 an accumulated in the collection of Q43 thousand 540.1 million and when compared to 2024, the amount was Q40 thousand 148.5 million.
Despite the figures that the minister announced, during the first four -month, the collection is showing a slowdown compared to last year:
- January: 10%
- February: 5.1%
- March: 11.1% (increases by the payment of the annual ISR)
- April: 8.2%
Promises greater budget execution
Regarding the execution of public spending, Menkos said that May 23 reached 31.2%, with an amount of Q48 thousand 317.1 million. However, he acknowledged that some ministries have an execution lower than the average, which implies a lower provision of goods and services to the population.
He highlighted the Ministry of Communications, Infrastructure and Housing (MICIVI), with an execution of 18.4%, and the Ministry of Social Development (MIDES), with 23.1%.
He clarified that in the case of the MICIVI, the low execution is due to the cycle of investments itself, and in Mides, to factors related to tax collection as a source of financing. He added that, compared to the same period of the previous year, the execution of the MICIVI grew 60.4% and that of Mides, 83.3%.
As for the public investment item, the expected amount is Q6 thousand 60 million. “We have to advance faster in public investment. We want the execution to grow more in the second semester, and we are working to make it more agile and transparent,” he concluded.