The political pulse for the finance commission between the ruling and the opposition is key, according to analysts, since the opinion of the national budget for the third year of mandate of Bernardo Arévalo will depend on this.
At the beginning of the year, the Board of Directors of the Congress delivered this commission to the Cabal Block, which in turn appointed as president of the work table to deputy Julio Héctor Estrada, but the opposition managed to include in the last plenary session of May a motion with which they seek changes in this work commission.
On that occasion the session was suspended and the opposition legislators went to the Constitutional Court (CC), obtaining a provisional protection that orders the Congress to meet until the agenda is exhausted, which includes among its points renew the finance commission.
In 2024, this work room was also covered and was chaired by Deputy Estrada, achieving the agreements and the technical analysis that achieved a budget extension and, subsequently, an expenses plan for 2025.
This year there were disputes with the assignment of the Commission, but the Board of Directors finally delivered it again to the Allied Block of the ruling, Cabal.
As the official alliance was losing strength of the Congress, according to analysts, the opposition sought the ideal space to fight again for what is considered the most important commission.
Badly precedent
For Roberto Alejos, former president of Congress, it is dangerous as opposition deputies seek to “break” the rules of the legislative agency, since the distribution of commissions is something agreed that had never been put into discussion months after being distributed.
“While the alliance in Congress lost the majority, the opposition, which is in its right to have control of Congress, can do so, but not breaking the order and customs already established,” emphasizes Alejos.
For him, if a change in the order of the commissions is achieved, it will be a negative precedent that will accompany this future legislatures, because the rules will be altered to flavor and craving of the majority political forces.
“Fucent precedents are paid that are then paid every time we legislate in a casuistic way. It already happened to the Public Ministry, with the electoral law and then pay the consequences,” he said.
Although at the moment there is no date for an upcoming extraordinary plenary session in Congress, because the previous agenda was not exhausted, the legislature must resume it and define the pending points, including the distribution of the finance commission that seeks to obtain the opposition.
“The role of the opposition I think will always be trying to take power to the ruling party. That is why they see an allied group in the cabal, rather than the government, to the president of the Congress, who collaborated to carry out the budget extension and the budget,” Alejos said.
The former president of that agency is clear that if the ruling and his allies lose this pulse, the Arévalo administration will resent the consequences with the type of budget that is prepared from the Congress by 2026.
“The Finance Commission is always chosen first because it is the most important, because it manages the budget opinion, but also handles budget execution. If they have a majority to take over the Finance Commission, they will have a majority for a budget that is not the best for the government, with interests of the opposition,” he said.
Pre -election year
The intentions of the opposition are clear, according to the reading of Manfredo Marroquín, analyst and founder of the Citizen Action Organization, ensuring that it seeks to control a key commission to distribute public resources with a view to the general elections of 2027.
“The party interests are already in the leather and will seek to make use of these resources for clientele purposes, mainly those designated to the Development Councils,” he said.
Marroquín considers that the weakening of the ruling came from before, that the group of official deputies itself fragmented among some who seek to save the Semilla Movement and others who opt for a new political party as roots, but this division affected them and gave advantage to the opposition.
“I believe that the objective they have is to take the most important commission because it sees the budget. I do not see it impossible for them to achieve it and it would be a hard blow for the government because it would lose a lot of room for maneuver,” he said.
But a scenario of this type would affect, according to Marroquín, the response that the government will have to social problems, which would also make it more complex to fulfill its different campaign promises.
“This would be an early defeat because the Government in its third year must give results. If people do not perceive it, they will disappoint themselves and the opposition will gain strength,” he concluded.