While the government of President Donald Trump tries to negotiate a nuclear agreement with Iran, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamín Netanyahu, threatens to end the conversations by attacking Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facilities, according to officials informed of the situation.
The confrontation about the best way to ensure that Iran cannot manufacture a nuclear weapon has caused at least one tense phone call between President Trump and Netanyahu and a wave of meetings in recent days between senior government positions and senior Israeli officials.
Trump said Sunday that he could get “something good” about his effort to limit the Iranian nuclear program in the “next two days.”
Other people familiar with negotiations said, at most, there would be a statement of some common principles. Details in debate remain secret and probably only the foundations for future negotiations would lay; To begin with, if Iran could continue enriching uranium at any level, and how it would dilute its almost suitable fuel reserves or how it would send them outside the country.
The New York Times reported that Israel had planned to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities this month, but Trump rejected it, because he wanted to continue negotiating with Tehran. However, Netanyahu has continued to press so that military actions are undertaken without the help of the United States.
Israel does not participate in negotiations between the United States and Iran. In the center of the tension between Netanyahu and Trump are their divergent opinions about the best way to exploit a moment of Iranian weakness.
In October, Israel destroyed key elements of the Iran Air Defense Strategic System, which helped protect the country’s nuclear facilities. This would allow Israeli planes to approach Iran’s borders without fear of being the target of their attacks.
In addition, Israel has paralyzed Hizbulá and Hamas, who have had financial, arms and Iranian missile support. When Hizbulá’s coup in particular, Israel eliminated the concern that the group threaten Israeli aircraft to Iran and retaliates through missile attacks against Israel after any attack.
Netanyahu has argued that Iran’s vulnerability will not last long and that the time has come to attack. Trump has argued that Iran’s weakness makes it a perfect time to negotiate the end of the Iranian enrichment program, backed by the threat of military action if conversations fail.
Israeli officials fear that Trump is now so anxious to reach his own agreement – which will try to sell as more solid than that reached by the Barack Obama government in 2015 – that will allow Iran to maintain its uranium enrichment facilities.
Last month, Netanyahu insisted that the only “good agreement” would be one that dismantled “all the infrastructure” of the vast Iranian nuclear facilities, which are buried under the desert in Natanz, inside a mountain in a place called Fordow, and in facilities distributed throughout the country.
This story of tensions between both men is based on interviews with officials from the United States, Europe and Israel, who have participated in diplomacy and debate between US and Israeli governments. They insisted on maintaining anonymity because they were not authorized to talk about delicate diplomatic issues.
Ron Dermer, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, and David Barnea, head of the MOSAD, the Israeli intelligence agency, met Friday in Rome with Trump’s chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff.
Then, both traveled to Washington to meet on Monday with John Ratcliffe, director of the CIA. Dermer met with Witkoff on Tuesday, although the theme of that meeting was not clear immediately.
When comments were requested, the White House officials indicated Trump’s statements this weekend, when he said “he would love that bombs were not thrown.” Netanyahu’s office made a comment after the publication of this article, sending a two -words statement to describe it: “false news.”
The central division in negotiations between Witkoff and his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, focuses on Trump’s government position that Iran must stop all enrichment of nuclear material in their territory. Araghchi has repeatedly rejected that restriction, and repeated in a publication on social networks on Tuesday that if the Western powers insist on the “‘zero enrichment’ in Iran” then “we have nothing left to discuss the nuclear issue.”
In an effort to prevent negotiations from failing, Witkoff and Oman, who acts as a mediator, are discussing creative options. Among them is a possible joint regional project to produce fuel for nuclear reactors with Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Arab powers, as well as some US participation. But it has not been determined where enrichment would take place.
According to participants, Witkoff has also abandoned his initial objections to a provisional agreement that establishes the principles of a final agreement. But that may not satisfy Israel or those who support more aggressive measures regarding Iran in Congress.
This reminds what the Obama government did in 2013, although it took two more years to complete a definitive agreement. Trump campaigned against that agreement when he appeared to the 2016 presidential elections, qualifying him as a “disaster” because he allowed to follow enrichment at low levels and expired completely in 2030.
Trump retired from the agreement in 2018 and imposed economic sanctions on Iran.
In the last four years, the Iranians have not only reactivated and improved their nuclear facilities, but have also produced enriched uranium at 60 percent purity, just below what is considered “suitable for bombs”. It would take a few weeks to make it 90 percent enriched fuel for a bomb, and between a few months and a year produce a real nuclear weapon, as they have calculated US intelligence services.
Ratcliffe traveled to Israel last month to discuss possible undercover actions against Iran with Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence services officials. The two countries have previously cooperated in undercover efforts to paralyze Iran’s ability to enrich Uranium, including an effort during the government of George W. Bush and Obama to attack the facilities with a sophisticated cyber weapon.
Throughout his decades in the government, Netanyahu has been skeptical of diplomatic approaches to Tehran. He opposed the 2015 agreement and tried to disrupt him, even going to a joint session of Congress to defend his elimination.
This time, Israeli officials have dusted an old play book: threatening to attack Iran, even without American help. They insist that they are not fanfarroneando, although they have made such threats and have back several times over almost two decades.
Israeli officials indicated to Trump’s government, shortly before the first official trip of the president in the Middle East this month, which were preparing an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities, according to two people informed of the conversations. American intelligence also detected Israel’s preparations for an attack.
That led Trump to speak with Netanyahu, who did not denied having ordered his military and intelligence agencies to prepare for an attack and argued that he had a limited term to do it.
But American military officers are skeptical about the effectiveness of an Israeli attack carried out without US support. In the call, Trump recognized Iran’s weakness, but said that gave the United States influence to reach an agreement that put an end to the nuclear program peacefully, according to officials.
The Israelis distrust especially from any provisional agreement that can conserve Iran’s facilities for months or years while a definitive agreement is reached. And, at least at the beginning, Trump’s government was also skeptical. Witkoff, the main American negotiator, told his Iranian counterpart that Trump wanted a definitive agreement in a matter of approximately two months.
But that deadline is about to expire, and there is still an important gap on the question of whether they will continue to enrich uranium, what Tehran says that it is their right as a signer of the treaty on the non -proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Now, the Trump government seems more open to some type of provisional declaration of common principles, because it could help postpone an Israeli attack.
According to experts, to satisfy the Israelis and the opponents of Iran in Congress, any provisional agreement would have to demand almost certainly that they will take out their fuel almost suitable for the manufacture of pumps or that it “recess” at a much lower level. That would allow Trump to affirm that he has eliminated, at least temporarily, the threat that Iran can accelerate his path to a weapon.
One of the concerns of US officials is that Israel can decide to attack Iran without hardly notice. American intelligence services have calculated that Israel could prepare an attack against Iran in just seven hours, which would leave little time to press Netanyahu to cancel it.
But that same American military evaluation raised doubts about the effectiveness of an Israeli unilateral attack without US support. And some Israeli officials close to Netanyahu believe that the United States would have no choice but to help Israel militarily if they will get back.
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Israeli officials have told their American counterparts that Netanyahu could order an attack against Iran even if a satisfactory diplomatic agreement is reached.
After its meeting with Trump at the White House in April, Netanyahu ordered the Israeli National Security officials to continue planning an attack against Iran, including a minor operation that would not require US assistance, according to multiple people informed about the matter. Israel already has many different plans in mind, ranging from surgical to the bombardment of Iranian facilities for days and days, including some in very populated cities.