25% tariffs announced President Donald Trump to cars that are not manufactured in the United States They hit the heart of the free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada (T-MEC), in force since 2020.
Thanks to that treaty and its predecessor, the NAFTA, The North American region became an assembly line that extends through the three countries.
“We have been 30 years making that supply chain more sophisticated, “says Juan Francisco Torres Landa, a partner of Hogan Lovells in Mexico, a business advisory firm.
“There is one regional integration based on inputs, raw materials and processes in the three countries, “he adds.
Trump ensures that these tariffs They aim to recover the “wealth” that other countries have taken from the United States, But the measure promises to be a headache due to the deep integration of productive chains.
Here the impact that this tariff will have, that will come into force next Thursday, according to experts.
How will they affect supply chains?
During the assembly of a vehicle, A piece can cross the borders of the three countries several times before the product is finished.
Therefore, important supply chains have been built with hundreds of suppliers from different countries. Only the key to a car can have more than 50 components of 22 different suppliers from Asia, North America and Europe.
The White House said that cars manufactured in Mexico and Canada can certify content of the United States, which will allow the tariff to apply only to the value of non -American components.
Specialists estimate that, consequently, These levies will upset supply chains in the region.
“It’s crazy (…). What was done in 30 years cannot be undone in three days “, Hogan Lovells specialist underlines.
How will growth alter?
Mexico is a country particularly exposed to this measure, By house several brand factories such as Ford, General Motors, BMW and Volkswagen.
More than 80% of Mexican exports They have the United States and only the automotive industry represents 3.6% of Mexican GDP.
The country exports annually About three million cars to the US market And it covers 40% of its auto parts demand, according to the Mexican government.
The announcement of tariffs It arrives at complicated times for the economy of Mexico, The second largest in Latin America. The specialists that month by month survey the Bank of Mexico (Central) They expect GDP to grow only 0.81% in 2025 from 1% they estimated in February.
These policies “They generate uncertainty and affect private investment And production decisions in key export sectors, “says Gerónimo Ugarte, chief economist of the financial firm Valmex.
In fact, Valmex expects GDP to be between -0.4% and 0.6%, depending “mostly on the tariff policy that the United States implements” On April 2, when it will also announce reciprocal tariffs for all its partners.
Why do they launch an agreement to Limbo?
Mexico and Canada consider that Trump’s customs taxes are T-MEC rape.
The Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, said Thursday that “There should be no tariffs” between Mexico, the United States and Canada Well, that is the essence of the agreement.
Howeverthe ads have left the treaty in limbo. “You have to analyze whether (…) for Trump the T-MEC must be replaced, replaced or extinguished simply by starvation,” says Torres Landa.
Although a review of the treaty is scheduled in 2026, according to the current rules, for Jesús Carrillo, expert of the Mexican Institute of Competitiveness (IMCO), Commercial policy “is being directly and progressively negotiated among governments.”
“We are going from having a treaty to have treatment, to have agreements,” says Carrillo. Therefore, consider whatand “The T-MEC will remain in force but with patches.”
Will the price of cars upload?
United States analysts and business partners warn that Tariffs will increase prices for US consumers.
Philippe Waechter, head of economic research at the financial firm Ostrum, warned that An increase of US $ 3 can be expected in the average price of cars.
Faced with that possibility, There is a risk that consumers simply “reduce their demand” of new cars, Explains the British firm Capital Economics.