The climatic variations registered in recent months in Guatemala, marked by unseasonable rains, could give way to an opposite scenario in the second half of the year: droughts, high temperatures and losses in agriculture, according to Alex Guerra, director of the Private Institute for Research on Climate Change (ICC).
During the dry season, which runs from December to March, unusual rains were recorded in different regions of the country. According to Guerra, this behavior was influenced by the La Niña phenomenon, which, combined with the constant passage of cold fronts, generated precipitation even in traditionally dry months like March.
ICC records indicate that rain was above normal in some parts of the country, even with downpours, an atypical behavior for the dry season. These conditions also caused river flows to remain high, especially on the south coast.
However, this scenario could change starting in July, when the El Niño phenomenon, currently in a neutral phase, is expected to enter. This climatic event usually generates conditions opposite to La Niña, with decreased rainfall and increased temperatures.
More intense and prolonged dog days
According to the expert, the start of the rainy season between April and June is expected to remain within normal parameters. However, the panorama changes in the second semester.
“The concern is that starting in July the effects of El Niño will begin to be seen, with a stronger and more prolonged heat wave,” Guerra explained.
This phenomenon could result in low rainfall during July and August, as well as a general reduction in rainfall in the rest of the rainy season. In addition, less cloudiness would favor an increase in temperatures, with hotter days and nights.
Impact on the dry corridor and agriculture
The most severe impact is expected in the dry corridor, where agriculture depends almost exclusively on rain. In these areas, the lack of rainfall could cause losses in subsistence crops.
“The dry corridor is the one that bears the brunt,” said Guerra, warning that many families may not be able to produce enough to feed themselves.
The El Niño phenomenon could also affect water levels in the medium term. Although the rivers currently have high flows, it is estimated that a reduction in rainfall in 2026 would impact water levels in 2027, affecting rivers, lagoons and wells.
Previous experiences show these effects. In 2024, during another El Niño event, an increase in the salinity of wells in coastal areas was recorded. In 2015, the Atescatempa lagoon even dried up.
Risk of fire and temperature rise
The increase in temperature associated with El Niño also increases the risk of forest fires. The reduced presence of clouds favors warming, which aggravates dry conditions in ecosystems.
These effects are not limited to Guatemala, but impact all of Central America and southern Mexico, as part of the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate system that alternates between phases of El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions.
Call to prepare
Given this panorama, the specialist recommended preventive measures such as water storage and crop diversification, especially in vulnerable agricultural areas.
He also urged authorities and organizations to prepare in advance, given the possibility of a decrease in agricultural production.
“There will surely be effects, and many families who depend on subsistence agriculture could be affected,” he warned.
The climatic behavior in the coming months will be decisive for the country, in a context in which climate variations continue to impact food security and water resources.
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