Decision makers, investors and economic agents in Guatemala who participate in productive relationships They begin to see with caution the possible effects of the geopolitical conflict international in the Middle East, since there is no certainty when it can end.
The growth forecasts for the Guatemalan economy, measured by gross domestic product (GDP), remain intact, with growth between 3.1% and 5.1%, and a central value of 4.1%, which would confirm resilience to international crises, according to the review carried out last April for 2026.
However, as the international war escalates or incidents in the Persian Gulf increase, there will be a global political and economic repercussion, which would be reflected in economically dependent countries that interact with the United States.
A panel of analysts consulted by Free press asserts that the conflict between Iran, Israel and the US It does not have a defined date for its completion or peace agreements, which increases the level of uncertainty, even more so after the effects of the pandemic in 2020.
This may mean that war operations are reactivated at any time.
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Furthermore, the US enters a period of legislative elections next November, so the pressures will continue in the face of possible results.
In the international context, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine persists, as well as the implementation of tariff and immigration policies by the US, situations that continue to generate expectations and that are assimilated in Guatemala in the economic scenarios of 2026 and 2027.
Conflict redefines economic landscape
Sergio Recinos, former president of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), started in his analysis that a few weeks ago the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its annual spring meetings, revised downwards the growth projections, which, in his opinion, were not so significant, but are beginning to mark another scenario, with a higher level of uncertainty due to the tariff issue, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and now the Middle East.
Unlike what was expected, that the conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel would last a month, it did not happen, so there are already two months, and despite the fact that there are negotiations with advances and setbacks, “there is really no end in sight in the short term.”
On the other hand, Recinos commented that, depending on the intensity and duration of the operations, this will be the impacts at a global macroeconomic level and, obviously, for Guatemala, which, being a country with a small open economy and an importer of one hundred percent of petroleum derivatives, will be affected in some way.
He recognized that, in global perspectives, There are big differences between regions such as Asia and the Middle East, with much more impact than Latin America.
Conflict pushes economy to intermediate stage
In his experience, Recinos affirms that, at the moment, there are only very specific estimates and three scenarios are proposed: mild, intermediate and severe.
In practice, the mild scenario would already be ruled out, because the conflict did not end in the month that had been anticipated; Therefore, we are now entering an intermediate scenario, characterized by the fact that the growth of the global economy may decrease slightly and inflation may increase.
Depending on the intensity and duration of the operations, this will be the impacts at a global macroeconomic level and, obviously, for Guatemala, which, being a country with a small open economy and an importer of one hundred percent of petroleum derivatives, will be affected in some way.
Finally, the severe scenario, in general terms, It means that the confrontation will extend during the second semester and that the growth of the global economy may drop to 2.5%, since until now it remains at 3.3%, and that inflation may rise between 4% and 4.5%.
In a scenario in which the dispute spreads and inflation exceeds targets, central banks can be expected to begin to react with increases in the interest rate, which implies a more restrictive monetary policy, which in turn will generate pressures on the global financial system, with an increase in risk and the possibility of generating some “contagion effect.”
This last scenario would imply much lower economic growth, derived from the increase in interest rates, problems in the financial systems and global debt, which rose with some force since the health emergency. Furthermore, it would imply a call to countries to reduce their fiscal balances and generate less pressures.
Economy would feel gradual impact
Economist Maynor Cabrera, consultant at the Economics for Development Foundation (Fedes), considers that global uncertainty does not affect Guatemala so negatively in terms of its macroeconomic balance, which represents a positive aspect. It even helps that the Central Government maintains low spending execution, which has not driven an excessive fiscal deficit, along with a debt strategy that, although it has grown, is not overwhelmed either.
He explained that Guatemala’s exports have grown, despite some drops in prices, since volumes have increased.
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Cabrera stressed that There is an optimistic scenario in which the Guatemalan economy would grow 4.1% this year; However, “this geopolitical crisis is not seen to end, rather it would be moving closer to the moderate scenario and moving away from the pessimistic scenario.”
“It is very likely that the economy will take some hit this year and, by 2027, we will have an election year in which the economy will be weaker. However, we are not seeing a sharp fall, but rather a moderation in the growth that is observed,” he remarked.
The analyst warned that “close attention” must be paid to the evolution of the US economy, due to the dependency derived from commercial factors and remittances.
“The current situation is not that bad, but there are many dark clouds, not only because of the cost of living in the United States, but also because they are having employment problems and this can affect Guatemala,” he added.
He recalled that the macroeconomic scenario is based on a historical base that continues to be a strength; However, when reviewing in detail, there is some weakening in activities such as agriculture and industry, sectors that may be affected by the costs of energy products.
Cabrera highlighted that Guatemala did not start this crisis so badly and that, on a macroeconomic scale, there will be moderation; However, by 2027, problems could be seen, especially fiscal, in addition to deficiencies in infrastructure, which affect the capacity for economic growth in the short term, since little, poorly and increasingly less is invested.
Rule out optimistic scenario
For the analyst of the National Economic Research Center (Cien), Hugo Maul, as long as the conflict in the Middle East is not resolved, the international market for oil and its refined products will be subject to this disturbance, and in the current scenario it is not perceived that prices will decrease.
Guatemala did not start this crisis so badly and that, on a macroeconomic scale, there will be moderation; However, by 2027, problems could be seen, especially fiscal, in addition to deficiencies in infrastructure, which affect the capacity for economic growth in the short term, since little, poorly and increasingly less is invested.
In his opinion, the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a route for the maritime transport of oil tankers from the Persian Gulf, “does not look like something so simple.” Furthermore, it seems that the United States also has no interest in ending this conflict quickly, so any prediction will depend on the actions taken each day.
“For now, nothing can be predicted about where oil prices will be. The positive scenario is nowhere to be seen and I see a scenario close to the pessimistic one. Guatemala and the United States have a solid correlation and the entire export sector is tied to the economic cycle in North America, which is impacted by the price of oil, and until now there is resilience and not much room to observe the impact,” Maul highlighted.
Uncertainty would slow down investments
Recinos stressed that, faced with these uncertain scenarios, businessmen and decision makers in Guatemala They should be more cautious when making their investments, although there may be differences between sectors.
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In general terms, this global uncertainty could affect investment expectations and forecasts, especially for large companies. For medium and small companies, no slowdown in credit has been observed, although there has been a slight reduction in consumer credit and for large companies.
He reiterated that last year inflation was below the lower limit of the goal, there was economic growth and that induced the central bank to reduce the monetary policy interest rate on three occasions, until it stood at 3.50%, something very similar to what happened on a global scale.
It is likely that some increases will begin to be observed in the following semester, which represents another scenario. In any case, the crisis may affect the economy this year, but it will not be such a big impact and the 3.5% growth floor, which has been the potential growth, will be maintained. If the conflict continues during the second semester, the scenario would be the most pessimistic, especially due to the electoral process.