Landlocked and surrounded by wealthier and more powerful neighbors, Malawi has long been a victim of its geography and economy. Now it is at the epicenter of a crisis brewing more than 4,800 kilometers away.. As farmers struggle with rising fuel prices and growing fertilizer shortages, there is global concern about the impact on crops. Africa, where more than half of its 1.3 billion people depend on agriculture, is the most vulnerable region, along with some areas of Asia.
Malawi is an extreme example of how serious the consequences for food security could be. Small farmers make up the majority of the country’s 22 million inhabitants. As they prepare for the planting season, transporting fertilizer to rural areas is becoming prohibitive, if any is available at all. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, In the context of the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, it is disrupting the world’s supply of fuel and nutrients for plants. “My biggest concern this year is not just price, but also availability,” said Yashodhan Gharat, director of One Acre Fund in Malawi, a nonprofit that supports farmers in 10 African countries.
“Everyone is going to look for fertilizers and when that happens, will they reach a small market like Malawi? I doubt it.” The impact of the war led the United Nations to warn of the skyrocketing of food prices on a continent where alarms had already been raised about possible famines and where governments have limited capacity to provide aid. Africa also uses, on average, less fertilizer than, for example, Europe, meaning the soil is already at risk of malnutrition, according to producer Yara International ASA.
Farmers in countries such as Nigeria and Lesotho say they are stopping using fertilizers or reducing acreage. South Africa expects the lowest wheat harvest in 12 years as winter planting begins. In Senegal, some farmers are using cheaper products. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, where smallholder farmers use minimal fertilizer, any sudden price increase can dramatically reduce input use and lower already low yields, according to a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) paper published in March. This carries the risk of “lower harvests, which impacts their own consumption and increases food price inflation,” the document states.
The price of urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, skyrocketed more than 90% due to the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately a third of world exports of urea, 20% of ammonia and a fifth of phosphate fertilizer transit through this strait from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. According to the FAO, Malawi sources almost 60% of its nitrogen fertilizer imports from Gulf countries, making it one of the most dependent countries in the world. The United States and Iran still maintain very distant positions on how to end the war and reopen the maritime passage.
However, even if the conflict ends, a slow recovery in fertilizer shipments is expected due to maritime congestion and delays in restarting plants, according to Ashish Lakhotia, head of agricultural inputs at commodities trading group ETG Group. Lakhotia said some shipments his company had ordered have been canceled and others diverted, while China is limiting its exports to ensure sufficient supply for its own consumption. In West Africa, farmers Not only do they struggle to afford fertilizers at the start of the planting season, but some cannot even find them.
For Gideon Idika, an agricultural support technician who helps palm oil, cocoa and cashew farmers in Abia state, southeastern Nigeria, this is a cause for concern.
“Farmers are stopping using fertilizers because they cannot afford the price increase, which also means the harvest will be poor,” said Idika, who also oversees a 200-acre oil palm plantation. “The high price has also created opportunities for middlemen who mix whatever they can find and sell it on the market, mostly low-quality fertilizers.”
To the west, in Senegal, farmers near the town of Thies lamented rising prices and fertilizer shortages. “I couldn’t get good quality fertilizers, so I’m working with what I can afford instead of what I would normally use,” said Ngoaye Diop, who grows vegetables. Across Ghana, most suppliers are struggling to import fertilizers due to shortages or long delivery times, said Nana-Aisha Mohammed, regional director of the African Alliance for Fertilizers and Agribusiness, a nonprofit organization working to expand access to these nutrients. “We are facing a crisis,” he declared.
The potential consequences are especially serious in Malawi, a country that has already suffered repeated food shortages due to extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and cyclones in recent years. Located andBetween Zambia, Tanzania and Mozambique, Malawi is eThe poorest country in the world among nations that are not in conflict. Between October and March, 22% of Malawians experienced acute food insecurity, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, an international collaborative initiative that includes UN agencies and the World Bank.
A better harvest has helped alleviate the situation, but fuel prices are now among the highest in the world and fertilizer is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain. Local farming organizations now expect to be the last to receive fertilizer supplies from ports in Mozambique and South Africa. In the event of a shortage, shipments are likely to go to buyers with greater purchasing power and easier access. According to a document published this month by the African Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes, fertilizer producers outside the Gulf “are adjusting their export strategies, reallocating volumes and prioritizing markets with greater paying capacity.”
For supplies that do arrive, rising prices are likely to make it difficult for Malawi to increase or maintain the subsidies the state gives to mostly subsistence farmers. The government has been negotiating a debt of US$13 billion with its creditors since 2022. The lines to refuel are increasingly longer, despite the fact that the price exceeds US$3.50 per liter for both diesel and gasoline. The government is selling gold reserves to finance fuel imports and has requested emergency funds from the World Bank.
“It’s incredible to think that Malawi is one of the poorest countries in the world and is hugely dependent on imports, most of which arrive by road,” said Grace Jackson, director of GiveDirectly in Malawi, a nonprofit that channels donor funds to those most in need. “The food security situation in Malawi next year looks really alarming. We could be facing millions of people with very, very serious levels of hunger.”