If you had trouble sleeping in past nights because of the heat, in June temperatures will rise between 0.5 and 3 degrees Celsius, according to the monthly climate outlook of the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (Insivumeh). That is one of the most immediate effects for the population, but the increase in temperatures will also have repercussions on agriculture, electricity generation and other sectors.
The increase will be felt throughout the country, although in different intensity. The highest temperatures are expected in Petén, the Caribbean, the Oriente valleys, the Boca Costa and the Pacific area.
The forecast is a consequence of the El Niño phenomenonwhose probability of occurrence is 98%according to the Insivumeh. In Guatemala and the rest of Central America, its effects will be reflected in decrease in rainfall and increase in temperatures.
The phenomenon will have a strong to very strong intensity and its effects will possibly extend until 2027, according to Alex Guerra, general director of the Climate Change Institute (ICC).
A similar scenario was experienced in 2024, considered the hottest year on record that surpassed the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit established in the Paris Agreement. El Niño contributed to that behavior. Given the forecast of a more intense phenomenon, this scenario could be exceeded and the possibility of reaching record temperatures is not ruled out, according to Raquel Sigüenza, representative of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).
“The El Niño phenomenon raises temperatures almost globally and the changes are being very strong,” says Sigüenza and will affect the sensation of heat. “What the rains do is regulate the temperatures a little, but if we have less rain, that will contribute to making the heat feel more intense,” he explains.
Although an increase of between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius It does not seem alarming, the human body does suffer from it.
Guerra remembers that, in May 2024, due to the heat at night, people used up fans on store shelves, and those with greater purchasing power installed air conditioning in their homes so they could sleep.
Although the temperature increase indicated by Insivumeh is an average and will not behave the same throughout the country, Guerra states that The impacts will depend on the maximum numbers recordedsince one degree can stress some crops, but not others.
Sigüenza indicates that El Niño has not yet been formally declared and that its first effects are being observed. Projections indicate that it will intensify, with higher temperatures and irregular rainfall patterns, which will have impacts on different sectors, such as agriculture, health and energy, particularly hydroelectric plants. The key, he adds, is the preparation for this scenario.
Rain deficit and prolonged dog days
Although June is considered one of the rainiest months of the year (the other is September), a considerable deficit is expected. In regions such as Petén and the Northern Transversal Strip, the decrease in rainfall can range between 30 and 100 millimeters, while in the Pacific and the northern part of the coast it would be between 60 and 90 millimeters, according to Insivumeh.
In Guerra’s opinion, the fact that the effects of the phenomenon are already observed in June is critical, because it will have a direct influence on the Canicula —period of the rainy season in which rainfall decreases.
Under normal conditions, this can last a couple of weeks; However, under the effects of a more intense El Niño phenomenon, could exceed 50 days between July and Augustas already predicted.
“It is extremely delicate for the agricultural sector in Guatemala, because most crops in the country do not have access to irrigation and depend completely on rain,” says Guerra.
He adds that a strong and extensive heat wave can damage crops and cause partial or total losses for producers. The most affected are subsistence farmers who store grains for several months, which translates into food insecurity. Food shortages will be evident next year, warns.
less water
Less rain represents a risk, as it can cause artisanal wells to dry out and, in beach areas, to become saltier, as seawater manages to penetrate these spaces.
In a natural process, water seeps into the soil, which functions as a storage tank and feeds rivers, ponds and lakes during the dry season. As the rains decrease, the levels of the sources decrease, which becomes more noticeable in January, February and March.
On the other hand, the decrease in river levels will not only affect human consumption and crops, but also the generation of hydroelectric energy.
The cycle is shortened
Guerra points out that In the last 75 years, 24 El Niño events have occurred in the world, Therefore, on average, its effects occur every three years. However, phenomena with more intense characteristics, such as the one expected, are less frequent.
The last large event was recorded between 1997 and 1998 and caused forest fires. The general director of the ICC remembers that the main damage occurred in Petén and that the smoke reached the capital. A report from Defensores de la Naturaleza reported that in that period the fire affected 678,795 hectares of Peten forest and that the Losses were estimated at Q500 million. The damage was associated with El Niño.
Again, the phenomenon was recorded between 2015 and 2016, a period that has been considered the strongest observed in history, and eight years later it occurred again with intensity between 2023 and 2024.
“It is strange that only three years after that last episode we are again expecting a strong to very strong El Niño phenomenon,” says Guerra.
The effects have been the same: less rain, damage to agriculture, risk of forest fires during the dry season and conflict over water due to the scarcity of the resource.
“The key under this scenario is water conservation,” concludes Sigüenza.