Last weekend, the Secretary of War of the United States, Pete Hegseth, stated during an interview that operations with US military personnel would soon be taking place. in Guatemalan territory, with the aim of combating cartels and organized crime groups.
During the press conference held by the president and other officials at the Insivumeh headquarters, President Bernardo Arévalo was questioned again about the matter and the statements of the North American official.
“We have been clear in the type of support request we have made around equipment, training, trainers, counselors, integration of intelligence information systems, so that we can work very effectively and as we have always done, within the framework of current Guatemalan legislation,” he stated.
However, President Arévalo has not yet been clear about the reasons why the United States He continues to affirm that military operations will soon be carried out with troops from the North American country in Guatemalan territory.
Avoid friction
In the opinion of Jorge Ortega Gaitán, analyst and expert in public policies, President Arévalo’s attitude has been “very prudent and correct.”
He explained that, in politics, silence and calculated ambiguity are key tools to avoid diplomatic friction, both internally and with the United States. Ortega Gaitán exemplified this extreme with a metaphor.
“Remember that it takes us two, maximum three years to learn to speak well and 60 to learn to remain silent, right? And in politics it is the art of convincing. And practically 70% is to remain silent, and divert the topic or tone it down, but well, as head of the State, it is a statement that avoids unnecessary friction, both for the national front and for Washington,” he explained.
Diplomatic response
For his part, the analyst Mario Mérida He considered that the ruler’s attitude is prudent and typical of an “experienced diplomat.”
“Knowing the president’s diplomatic experience, I think he is acting with the prudence of a diplomat. That is, until he has a letter or a request specifically that describes what North American troops are supposed to come here—to Guatemala—to do, he will not give a concrete answer,” he said.
According to Merida, The president’s attitude is not one of “indecision or weakness,” but rather a well-managed diplomatic strategy. Furthermore, he emphasized that, for a US military incursion to take place in the country, all the corresponding legal procedures must be carried out, mainly related to the sovereignty and constitutional order of Guatemala.
“This can only happen if in the end it is proposed as a formal cooperation agreement that has to reach the Congress of the Republic, not only because of the issue of sovereignty and constitutional order, but also because some steps are also established in the Framework Treaty on Democratic Security in Central America,” he explained.
In this regard, Ortega Gaitán added that a scenario of this type is unlikely, but he does not rule it out either. Instead, he anticipated increased support from the United States in intelligence, cutting-edge technology and better coordination and communication with the national armed forces.
“It is not a military intervention per se, that the marines are going to come and take possession of the land. As relations are, I think that this extreme would not occur, but if intelligence support were increased with cutting-edge technology,” Ortega assured.
Points out the permissiveness of the Government
Mérida added that the statements given by US officials are also the product of “permissiveness.” that the Government has had, as a consequence of the support that has constantly been requested from the United Statesin different areas.
“Remember that you have filled your mouths as Guatemalans, some government officials, who quickly go to the FBI to explain such things. And now they have also gone to the North American government for the construction of bridges, railways, airports, etc., etc. So that, let’s say, in one way or another, empowers North American officials to be able to make these public approaches, without there really being a letter of intent, at least,” he said.
Importance to the US
Ortega Gaitán highlighted that Guatemala represents a strategic point for the United States and, within the security policy that the president of that country promotes on the continent, that is why constant reference is made to the country in his plans.
“Guatemala is at the crossing, it is at a strategic point because everything that is drugs, weapons, illegal migration, everything passes through Guatemala. For years, the United States no longer considers us the backyard, but rather the southern border,” Ortega concluded.