The General Secretariat of Planning and Programming of the Presidency (Segeplán) has begun the project to renew and update the Katún plan, now so that the plans are contemplated until 2052.
Katún was created in 2012, as a country project with a horizon drawn until 2032; However, Hugo Allán García, Undersecretary of Strategic Analysis for Development, in Segeplán, acknowledged to Prensa Libre that in the last decade there have been changes that force the project to be reconsidered with a perspective until the year 2052.
The first phase, which began last week, includes listening to a multi-sector forum about what awaits Guatemala in the next 26 years and, based on that, building a country plan that can transcend governments.
What is Katún 2052 and why does it occupy an important place in Segeplán’s work?
It is a tool that countries usually have to guide their course beyond the periods of government, beyond the electoral periods, because we are aware that four years are not enough to make long-term changes, structural changes.
For example, the modernization of ports, airports, and roads are projects that respond to a long-term vision. It is called katún because in the Mayan worldview it is a period of 20 years, and this is a 20-year plan with objectives expressed as a society.
Why change the original Katun 2032 plan at that time?
There are deficiencies in the conception of the plan itself. For example, there was talk (in 2012) that we had a low tax burden, but it was not addressed and was left as a pending task and it is a discussion that must be had, and that is the objective, to develop a more strategic plan.
Why did the problems arise in meeting the objectives of Katún 2032?
It could not be finalized due to budgetary issues, constant changes of authorities in government entities. And there are some issues within the plan itself that do not depend only on the Government, but on other sectors of society.
We are setting out in the plan what we want to do, and as a society we are clear that we all want to live better.
How will this plan be developed?
As an example of other countries that have medium and long-term plans, a consensus of society is sought, it is not the vision of a government. The government only facilitates dialogue and achieving a shared vision.
And what happens if that vision is not homogeneous?
We are approaching it in a methodological way, not getting into how we are going to achieve things, because we have seen through experience that the problems we have as a country are in how we want to do it. We are setting out in the plan what we want to do, and as a society we are clear that we all want to live better.
What changes did you identify in the country that warranted rethinking Katún 2032 and correcting it?
Although there were some things that were a little loose in the original plan, there are strong changes due to the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. That moved many things, including how we see the world, how we relate to the world. In fact, much of the educational system was left with hybrid teaching models, work has also adapted; We have also seen changes in demographics, with social phenomena such as migration that are changing the demographic dividend. Right now we are lowering birth rates at a rate that has not been seen in recent years and that puts everything in another perspective.
Other topics have also changed, such as artificial intelligence, which international forecasts tell us will change the world in the next decade faster than in the entire last century and that will change everything in terms of employment, for example.
And we must also think about climate change and its consequences for the country and how it can assimilate it and ensure that these circumstances do not become an obstacle to development.
What failed in Katún 2032 and what should not be repeated in Katún 2052?
We made an evaluation of how we have advanced the indicators, we have only advanced six percentage points from the baseline and we began to investigate a little more how planning has been connected to the budget. And there we find that there is a disconnection precisely in what is planned and what is finally financed through the annual budgets.
We are also evaluating how the programs are working, and if they are not working, we must redesign them, we must not put so much budget into a program that is not working and you can already see that with evaluations that we are doing. We are betting on a permanent monitoring and evaluation program.
It is planning for people who have not yet been born, who are going to experience the effects, whether we do it right or wrong.
If you had to choose the three biggest structural challenges that Katún seeks to solve, what would they be?
The modernization of the country in infrastructure, not only roads, but infrastructure for productivity. Another issue is addressing the large inequality gaps, and the other is climate change and its effects. But I would add a fourth, employment, which in Guatemala continues to be precarious.
How will the private sector, municipal governments, academia and civil society be involved in this discussion of Katún 2052?
The methodology includes dialogue tables to collect inputs with very clear methodologies and not remain in ideological discussions. Rather, it is identifying what the future we imagine is and how we could get to it without conditioning it to the present.
In reality, it is a plan for people who have not yet been born, who are going to experience the effects, whether we do it right or wrong, they are going to be people whose parents are probably 20, 25 years old right now, and we also want to consult with them, what is the future they imagine for their children.