Asked if they contemplate a new subsidy due to the recent increases in fuel, after having finishedthe temporary contribution that covered from April 28 to July 2, 2026the Minister of Energy and Mines, Erwin Barrios, indicated on July 14 that there is no type of proposal.
He added that, after ending the subsidy of Q5 per gallon of gasoline and Q8 per gallon of diesel, normal prices were returned and the population perceived the real value of fuel without contribution.
However, in addition to these subsidy amounts per gallon having ended, prices to the final consumer have reported several increases.
Regarding the recent increases, the official said that war conditions in the Middle East have worsened, which is immediately reflected in the international price of oil and its derivatives. “For us it is very complicated because we depend 100% on fossil fuels and imports and then we directly receive that impact,” added Barrios.
The reference prices in force for the final consumer in the last week of the subsidy —from June 30 to July 2— in Guatemala City they were Q32.09 for a gallon of superior gasoline, Q31.09 for regular gasoline and Q27.29 for diesel. The subsidy ended on July 2 and several gas stations began to raise their prices starting Friday the 3rd, without applying the subsidy.
However, there have subsequently been other increases. According to MEM monitoring as of July 13, prices reached:
- Q39.06 for the superior gasoline Q38.06 for the regular one
- This represented around Q7 more per gallon compared to when they still had the subsidy (Q5 for the elimination of the contribution and Q2 for additional increase).
- Diesel reached Q37.58.
- In this case, the increase to the consumer in that period has been Q10.29 (Q8 for the subsidy and Q2.29 for additional increase).
The government executed Q1,932 million of the Q2 billion approved for the subsidy. The remaining Q68 million will be returned to the common fund because they were no longer enough to cover any longer subsidy time and avoided being in debt, it was indicated.
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Effect of ethanol on price
The minister responded that, when the sale of gasoline mixed with 10% ethanolIf current prices are maintained, a drop of between Q0.50 and Q1.50 per gallon is estimated.
Of that amount, around Q0.47 would correspond to the reduction of the distribution tax on petroleum and its derivatives (IDP), because 10% of ethanol is not taxed according to the Minister of Energy, and around Q1 it would be explained because historically the price of ethanol is lower than that of gasoline.
Although he explained that the ministry does not regulate or define prices, market signals would point to a reduction of between Q0.50 and Q1.50.
“We hope that with E10 gasoline, which will enter on August 21, at least a stabilizer will be generated, since 10% ethanol is little but it will help to generate a buffer to the price of fossil fuels that arises entirely from these geopolitical situations,” added Barrios.
“There is also a downward trend, because the gasoline used for the 10% mixture sometimes has to be lowered a little in octane so that it gives the payroll octane and becomes cheap gasoline.”
Barrios indicated that they will continue to monitor prices at gas stations to detect and that consumers can also report to the authorities if there are increases that they consider irregular.
As of July 14, the price of WTI oil closed at US$79.97 per barrel.