When an earthquake occurs, the magnitude is usually the first piece of information that generates concern among Guatemalans. However, the comparison of the main earthquakes recorded in Guatemala for almost 15 years shows that A smaller movement can cause more damage than a stronger one..
An example of this difference is the earthquake magnitude 6.8 recorded on February 16, 2022. According to the data of the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction (Conred)although it had a smaller magnitude than the earthquake that occurred this July 17the event caused victims and damage in Guatemala.
To better understand this fact, Helen Morangeologist Seismological Service of Guatemala (SSG)explains that magnitude is not the only element that determines the impact of a seismic event.
“Other factors also influence such as the distance between the seismic source and populated areas, the depth, the type of soil, the vulnerability of the buildings and the characteristics of the rupture, such as its direction of propagation,” says Morán.
Magnitude is only part of the risk
In the case of Guatemala, the comparison between the earthquakes of the years 2012, 2014, 2017, 2022 and 2026 shows that the magnitude figure does not allow, by itself, to anticipate the level of damage.
A smaller earthquake can be more destructive if it occurs near populated areas, while a larger one can cause less damage if it is more distant.
According to the records of the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction (Conred)the earthquake November 7, 2012with magnitude between 7.2 and 7.4was the one that left the greatest human consequences of the recent period in Guatemala. The event caused 95 dead, 449 people injured and 38,600 affected. Two years later, the earthquake July 7, 2014of magnitude 6.4although lower in intensity, also generated a significant impact: it left 1 person died, 274 injured and more than 10 thousand people affected by damage to homesin addition to affected communities in different departments of the country.
On the other hand, the earthquake September 7, 2017of magnitude 8.2although it was of greater magnitude, but it left a lower balance of damage, with according to the official record 219 people affected, 2 injured and no deaths. If the earthquake of the February 16, 2022of magnitude 6.8caused 3 deceased, 23 people treated and 3 injured. While the earthquake July 17, 2026of magnitude 7.3let 21 people affected, 1 injured and 0 dead.
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The above data shows that magnitude alone does not determine the damage of a seismic event.
Epicenter of the earthquake on July 17, 2026
The proximity between the place where an earthquake originates and populated areas is one of the most important elements in determining the impact.
Victor Tzorinalso from the SSG, explains that the earthquake occurred on July 17, 2026with magnitude 7.3corresponds to an event considered large.
Although it had an approximate depth of 12 kilometersmeaning that it originated relatively close to the surface, its epicentral region was located more than 100 kilometers of Guatemalan territoryso the distance reduced the intensity of the movement perceived in the country.
“Although it was a large earthquake, the distance from Guatemalan territory contributed to making the impact smaller,” explained Tzorin.
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In contrast, the 2022 event occurred much closer to the Guatemalan coasts, thus generating greater perception of the movement and more incidents.
Five factors that determine the damage of an earthquake
Tzorin and Morán share, according to their experience, that to evaluate the impact of an earthquake it is necessary to analyze the combination of at least five factors, apart from the magnitude, these are: location, depth, type of soil, characteristics of the rupture and vulnerability of the constructions.
Event Depth
Depth also influences how an earthquake feels.
More superficial events tend to generate more intense movements on the surface, because there is a shorter distance between the point where the energy is released and inhabited areas.
However, experts explain that depth must be analyzed along with other factors, since a deep and close earthquake can have more impact than a shallow but distant one.
Soil type
In this regard, Morán comments that the terrain on which the communities are located can also influence the intensity of the movement: “some types of soil can amplify seismic waves, making the shaking stronger in certain areas.”
Construction vulnerability
SSG analysts comment that the quality of homes, buildings and infrastructure is another determining factor.
Two communities located at a similar distance from an epicenter may present different damages if one has more resistant buildings and another has more vulnerable structures.
Direction of rupture propagation
The way rupture occurs within the fault also influences how the released energy is distributed.
According to these two specialists, the propagation of seismic waves can concentrate greater movement towards certain areas, generating differences in the perceived intensity.