The new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on Brazilian products They represent another challenge for the pro-Trump candidate in the largest country in Latin America, a few months before the presidential elections. The 25% tariff, which came into effect yesterday, applies to products that represent 18% of Brazil’s exports to the United States, worth approximately US$7.4 billion. The United States is Brazil’s second most important trading partner, after China.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva blames the tariffs on Flávio Bolsonaro, his main opponent in the October election, and polls show more than half of Brazilians agree. Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is challenging Lula in part to secure his father’s release, a goal Trump has supported. Trump and the Bolsonaros, right-wing populists, maintain close political and personal ties; Lula, a leftist, has tried to develop a productive relationship with the American president.
Flávio Bolsonaro supported US tariffs and sanctions last year to pressure the government to end the prosecution of his father for attempting a military coup in 2022. His brother Eduardo moved to the United States last year specifically to pressure the Trump administration to help his father. But Flávio Bolsonaro asked the government in recent weeks to postpone any new taxes. It would be “the worst time,” he told the U.S. trade representative this month, because they could end up “benefiting Lula.”
Lula benefited from a mobilizing effect when Trump imposed tariffs last July, and received another boost when Trump withdrew most of them after their meeting in November. “Tariffs have been become a political asset for Lula“said Thomas Traumann, a political analyst based in Rio de Janeiro. “Trump is unpopular in Brazil, almost half of the country has an unfavorable opinion of the United States and Brazilians are deeply sensitive to the idea of foreign interference. “If Lula manages to convince voters that Flávio Bolsonaro is responsible for the actions of the White House, it could be enough to tip the electoral balance in his favor.”
Last week, the Trump administration announced new tariffs on Brazil in retaliation for what officials consider unfair business practices. “Extensive negotiations with Brazil over the past year have not resolved these issues,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement. “But we remain open to continuing negotiations with Brazil to achieve the changes necessary to solve the problems identified in this investigation.”
Government officials accuse Brazil of unfair practices in its digital public payments system and of not doing enough to combat corruption and deforestation. Brazilian officials say the accusations are baseless, citing official data showing that deforestation in the Amazon fell last year to its lowest level since 2014. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Lula had refused to negotiate “in good faith.”
“Lula has put his ego before the well-being of the Brazilian people,” he wrote on social media, “and these tariffs are the price he pays.” Lula described Rubio, born in Miami to Cuban immigrant parentsas “a frustrated Latin American” who “does not like Brazil or the region.” Felipe Nunes, director of the polling company Quaest, says the political impact of tariffs will depend less on their economic effect than on who is blamed for them.
At this point, there is a good chance that the episode will once again benefit Lula.
Both sides strive to control the narrative. Bolsonaro claims that the new tariffs are a consequence of Lula’s inaction. However, according to a Genial/Quaest survey, 51% of Brazilians agree with Lula that Bolsonaro is to blame, and almost six in 10 said they did not believe that Bolsonaro had enough influence to convince Trump to recall them. “External events can reshape politics when voters identify a clear political culprit,” Nunes said.
“Once responsibility is assigned, this tends to affect the way the actors involved are evaluated. … “At this point, there is a good chance that the episode will once again benefit Lula.” Brazilian political parties begin nominating candidates this week. The electoral campaign kicks off next month, when candidates and parties will be able to issue advertisements related to the elections. The first round of voting is scheduled for October 4.
If Flávio Bolsonaro is elected, he declared to Washington Post In April, he will pardon his father. Jair Bolsonaro, who was defeated by Lula in 2022, is serving a 27-year sentence for attempted violent overthrow of the democratic rule of law and related charges. Prosecutors claimed he led a plot that included plans to assassinate Lula and other officials. Two months ago, the polls showed Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula practically tied.
Since then, however, accusations linking Bolsonaro to Brazil’s biggest financial fraud, public family disputes and rejection of his ties to Trump have helped Lula gain a lead of up to eight percentage points.