China and the United States They star in an intense Commercial War For years, but the recent return of Donald Trump To the presidency of the USA. (2025-2029) has turned on tariff tensions again, putting the stability of global trade in check.
With increasingly aggressive measures, both countries have adopted nationalist positions to justify their decisions, while analysts alert about the geopolitical and economic consequences in the long term.
Trump revives the tariff war in 2025
At the beginning of April 2025, the US president announced new reciprocal tariffs Against almost 60 countries, including China. According to the White House, dozens of governments have requested negotiating commercial conditions, and Peter Navarro, commercial advisor, promised to reach “90 agreements in 90 days”
Trump publicly insists that his measures are working. He assures that the countries “look for him to supply deals” and that “everything will go well for the American people.”
However, The Chinese government He reacted firmly. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs published the video entitled “Do not kneel”reaffirming his refusal to give in to Washington’s pressures.
Beyond tariffs: a conflict over global leadership
The dispute between both nations is not limited to trade. United States and China maintain a technological rivalry that includes manufacture of semiconductorsCybernetic security and digital censorship.
While Washington has tried to stop the advance of Chinese platforms as Tiktok, Beijing maintains blocked services such as Google, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and X (Before Twitter).
In addition, since 2022, the United States promotes its technological autonomy with the CHIPS AND SCIENCE LAWlooking to produce microchips locally. But manufacturing these components requires high -tech facilities, whose construction may take years, explain technological experts.
The evolution of the commercial war: key points
By April 2025, the Chinese exports to the United States They face tariffs up to 245%while China imposes a 125% To American products.
Despite these measures, China has diversified its markets. Already in 2023 was the main trading partner of 60 countriesalmost double that USA. In addition, in 2024 he closed with a 1 billion dollar record commercial surplus And he consolidated his relationship with Southeast Asia, which is now his main export destination.
Trump vs. The world: An isolationist strategy?
Professor Ian Goldin, from the University of Oxford, in an interview for New York Times He explains that he considers that Trump is promoting a model that AUGOCRATIC LEADERSweakens the international system -based system and encourages other countries to seek alliances outside Washington.
“The Global supply chains are being reorganized And that benefits China, “he explains. In addition, Europe and South America They have created new commercial areas to reduce your US dependence.
Canada He has also expressed his intention to Diversify transport routes and defense alliances Together with Europe, seeking to reduce its forced proximity with the southern neighbor.
Then his victory at the polls, the Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carnyhe proposed today, April 29, the construction of new transport networks to facilitate access to global markets outside the United States. In addition, Canada currently negotiates its incorporation into the European military reinforcement with the aim of reducing its washington dependence, while the United Kingdom and the European Union refine the details of a joint defense pact.
China strengthens its global influence
In contrast, China advances with his Belt and route initiativeinvesting in infrastructure, energy and strategic minerals in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
Jonathan Czin, former CIA, points out that Trump has weakened the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) And he has proposed to eliminate many diplomatic missions in Africa, leaving a void that China has taken to consolidate your dominance over lands rich in essential minerals.
Even the president of the Asian Development Bank, Masato Kanda, recently urged Asia countries to diversify their commercial relations and reduce their dependence on the United States. Meanwhile, China promotes the expansion of alliances within the BRICS block, seeking political and economic support against Trump’s policies.
Comparison: United States and China Actions
| Action | USA | China | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duty | Between 145% and 245% to Chinese products | 125% to American products | Loss of mutual competitiveness |
| Relationship with Africa | Usaid dismantling | Strategic investments in mining and logistics | Advantage for China |
| Semiconductors | Local bet with chips law | Mass production in Asia | China leads for infrastructure |
| Foreign relations | Diplomatic hostility | Strengthening BRICS AND GLOBAL Alliances | China gains ground |
| International talent | Migratory restrictions | Attraction of researchers and students | Brain leak from the US. |
Who will win the commercial war?
Although the United States is still Greater economy in the worldthe structured advance of China as a global export leadertheir ability to adapt to tariffs and the consolidation of new strategic alliances, make many analysts anticipate that the real Winner of this commercial war will be China.
“For the United States it will not be easy to put Beijing between the sword and the wall,” the experts conclude.