Toy manufacturers, children’s articles and specialized retailers are interrupting orders for winter parties while import taxes are propagated by supply chains. China factories produce almost 80% of all toys and 90% of Christmas items sold in the United States.
The production of toys, Christmas trees and ornaments is usually already in full. It takes four to five months to manufacture, pack and send products to the United States.
Trump tariffs of 145% have caused a drastic increase in costs for US companies. Most entrepreneurs who have shared their plans with The New York Times They have not yet canceled their orders. They expect the president to reverse in his tariff policy.
But the alarm in the sector is palpable, and companies predict shortage of products and higher prices. Some entrepreneurs, claiming how crucial Christmas sales are for their results, are consulting bankruptcy lawyers.
“We have a frozen supply chain that is endangering Christmas,” said Greg Ahearn, general director of the toy association, an American industrial group that represents 850 toy manufacturers. “If we do not start the production soon, there is many chances that there is shortage of toys this Christmas.”
For the United States Christmas industry, Chinese manufacture has no rival in terms of speed and production capacity. Toy manufacturers review large parts of their product lines each year to adapt to the changing preferences of children. From materials to machinery, Chinese factories are unique windows for importers.
Kara Dyer, founder of Storytime Toys, manufacturer of children’s books with puzzles, usually makes a great Christmas order to her Chinese factory in the first two weeks of April to have sufficient stocks in mid -July. Christmas holidays represent approximately two thirds of their annual income.
Dyer made a small request for products worth US $ 30,000 before the last tariffs, without waiting for them to reach such high levels. That shipment is on their way to the United States. When I arrive, he said, he believes that he must $ 45,000 in tariffs. The shipment will provide sufficient existences to the company for a few months, and said that prices would probably upload at least 20% to cover tariff costs. But he is waiting to make a great Christmas purchase.
“I will keep hope for two more weeks that tariffs are eliminated and can make the order,” he said. “But if not, I will have to put my business in pause. I will not make any order if the tariffs are in force. It would not make any sense.”
In a toy association survey to 410 toys manufacturers with annual sales of less than US $ 100 million, more than 60% said they had canceled orders, and about 50% said they would leave the business in a matter of weeks or months if the tariffs were maintained.
In West Side Kids in New York, the owner of the store, Jennifer Bergman, 58, fears not having toys to sell at Christmas. And the toys you get could cost twice as much as last year, which would reduce your sales at the most important time of the year.
The toy companies are uploading prices between 10 and 20%, said Bergman, whose mother opened the store 43 years ago. He said that he would now try to buy everything I could, but that the shortage began. He had made a great request for the devil’s skates for the summer. But the importer diverted the shipment to Canada because he did not want to pay the tariff. They told him that he would only receive a part of his order.
If tariffs are maintained, Christmas will be like “something we have never lived before,” Bergman said. People will queue to buy things that cost the double or triple that before, he said. His business was already under the pressure of the Amazon competition, but fears that the tariffs will be a definitive blow.
“I don’t think he is still active for Christmas,” said Bergman, who added that he was consulting a bankruptcy lawyer.
In recent days, Trump has adopted a conciliatory tone towards China and tariffs, feeding some hopes among entrepreneurs that he can exempt industries that do not involve a threat to national security.
Ahearn said he was in Washington last week to press in favor of a 24 -month extension, which could give companies time to find ways to manufacture their products in the United States.
But, although Trump grants importers a temporary relief, important disturbances will be produced while companies are hurried to satisfy orders. Shipping costs are expected to trigger, similar to frenzy that occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the scarcity of transport containers led in some cases to multiply by ten the prices of freight.
Christmas is the time of the year of greatest activity for Aldik Home, a store of articles for the home of Los Angeles. It generates more than two thirds of its annual sales in the last three months of the year, selling artificial Christmas trees, crowns, ornaments, lights and other decorations.
Larry Gold, owner of the store, said he had been working with a Chinese factory for many years to design Christmas trees. Make the order in January to send it in June or July. This year he planned to send seven 12 -meter containers loaded with trees worth US $ 600 thousand from China. The current tariff would force him to pay almost US $ 1 million.
“Right now, we have asked them to endure and wait,” said Gold, 72.
Last year, the store sold 2 -meter trees for about US $ 1 thousand. Gold said he would have no choice but to transfer the tariff cost to buyers, which would place the price of that same tree in more than US $ 2000. He said that, in effect, that price would “kill the product.”
“I can’t believe that no one in this country who bought trees to China pays the 145%tariff, because it will never sell them,” Gold said.
At this rate, he said, he will not bring the trees, and his store, open for decades, will have nothing to sell during the most important period of the year. He said that he would probably be forced to close, which would cost his 40 employees.
“There will be no Christmas industry,” Gold said. “The whole product comes from China.”