Betting on who will be the new Pope gain ground in the middle of the rise of online games in the United States, a phenomenon that occurs while 133 cardinals from 70 countries are concentrated in the conclave from which Francisco’s successor will come out.
The 2025 conclave awakens interest worldwide, not only for its religious dimension, but also for the millions of dollars that move in bets on their result.
It is known that Polymarket, a popular cryptocurrency bet platform, manages more than US $ 18 million in bets on the conclave. Kalshi, another platform of the same type, manages about US $ 6.7 million.
Polymarket betting corridors place the Secretary of State of the Vatican, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, as a favorite, with a probability of 27%, followed by Cardinal Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, with 22%. In addition, Matteo Zuppi has 11%; Pierbattista Pizzaballa, with 10%; and Peter Erdő, with 7%.
The trainers can “buy” a possible chosen or “sell”, which is equivalent to betting that a certain cardinal will not be chosen. The payment of each bet depends on the probabilities set on the platform.
According to international media, in Polymarket more than US $ 1.3 million have been opted for the candidacy of Cardinal Tagle, and a similar figure by the Dutch Cardinal Willem “Wim” Eijk, to whom the betting corridors attribute a 1% probability.
In addition, more than US $ 1 million for Cardinals Parolin, Peter Turkson and Robert Sarah, respectively, have been bet.
Uncertainty
Bets of this type are usually surrounded by uncertainty, because the conclaves are characterized by the isolation of the cardinals during the choice process, which limits the flow of information.
Experts consider that it is clear who are the best known cardinals who arrive at the conclave; However, they warn that this perception does not necessarily reflect how their fellow electors see them.
“I think that some cardinals who are well positioned according to betting and media runners, even because of the prominent role they had under Pope Francis, may actually have less possibilities than others considered less probable,” Tom Nash, a collaborator apologist of Catholic Answers, told CNA.
He added that before the ecclave of 2013, Cardinal Angelo Scola was “a man who many saw as the continuator of the legacy of San Juan Pablo II and Benedict XVI”, but failed to obtain the majority of two thirds required, and the cardinals chose the then Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who took the name of Francis.
Some Catholics question the morality of betting on the conclave and its result, since that practice used to be expressly prohibited by the Vatican. However, this rule is no longer in force. According to the information available, Pope Gregory XIV prohibited “under penalty of excommunication” any commitment to the choice of a pope or the creation of cardinals through the bull Cogit nosof 1591. However, a review of canon law in 1918 did not maintain such prohibition, and so far no new provision has been implemented in this regard.