Given the uncertainty about the possibility of new tariffs on agricultural products that are imported to the United States, the sectors mention that some that do not occur in that country, such as coffee, sugar and bananas could be non -taxed, while those that are produced by seasons in that country, such as some vegetables and fruits, could be included.
Within the framework of the Free Trade Agreement (TLC) between the United States, Central America and the Dominican Republic (known as DR-CAFTA), the Tariff Preferences Deferences Program was completed in 99.9%, and the dairy products (such as cheese, ice cream, milk and fresh cream, fluid and nail, milk powder and butter), which would end with which Thus ending the relief program according to a document from the Ministry of Economy in issued in 2024.
It is added that in the context of the FTA, the only products that maintain contingent, and that will have an annual increase will be:
- The export of sugar (from Guatemala to the United States). In 2024 the quota was 53 thousand 580 TM, and which would have a periodic annual increase of 940 TM.
- Import (from the United States to Guatemala) of white corn. ENEL 2024, the quota was 27,600 TM, and a periodic annual increase of 400 TM was foreseen.
Now that the president, Donald Trump announced that he will impose tariffs on the importation of agricultural products, the producing and exporting sectors in Guatemala have reacted differently, depending on the type of product and the conditions.
In general, the sector has described it as bad news that creates uncertainty, although some trust that tariffs will not be implemented for Guatemala because some products provided by the country do not occur in the United States, since they are long cycles such as bananas, sugar and coffee.
In addition, if they are raw material, it represents economic growth by transforming it, because it seeks to avoid migration, and because that country maintains commercial surplus.
However, others, which are short cycle, including some vegetables and fruits, have not only from other countries but of internal production for several seasons of the year, and consider that they could have impacts.
Agricultural exports to the United States represent 17% of the total exports of all segments from Guatemala, about US $ 2 thousand 404 million, according to AGEXPORT data. Meanwhile, it is estimated that the export agricultural sector generates about 840 thousand jobs, according to data updated to 2022.
Banano, great exporter to the US.
Within Guatemalan agricultural products exported to the United States, the banana occupied in 2024 the first place of value exported with US $ 834.2 million.
Julio Mérida, Executive Director of the Association of Independent Banano Producers of Guatemala (APIB) said that it is also appropriate to make the exception that generally for the placement of tariffs, especially to agri -food products, the different economies must keep in mind that segments can replace with their own production or where there is an incipient national production to which they can protect.
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For that reason, he considers that in the case that for the United States, some products such as bananas do not fall within this segment because nothing occurs in that country.
In the case of Guatemala, it also has the advantage of can respond to the shipments with immediacy and trust that they will continue exporting, and currently one in two bananas that are consumed in the United States is produced in Guatemala, said Mérida.
If tariffs prevail, he comments that there will be an increase for the importer, the chain and that sooner or later it ends up impacting on the final consumer, so it would end up affecting the interests of the population that acquires bananas as one of the fruits with positive characteristics.
Mérida shows that the current United States government has announced the guidelines Trump contemplates to strengthen the economy of his country, and has identified four markets of origin such as Canada, Mexico, China and Brazil, but we will have to wait for the final decision, he added.
In addition, he said that the country can also seek to diversify more markets, but that, for example, exporting bananas to Korea is almost prohibitive because the tariff is 30%, while the FTA with that country is signed, but is detained.
Regarding consumer prices in the United States, he said that they depend on the distance of the State with respect to the coast. The pound can cost 59 cents (from 3 to 4 bananas, and if it is hypothetically imposed import tariff could approach US $ 1.
“If tariffs are placed, the FTA can affect and it would be a pity to lose the land earned, because it is a tool that has caused the dynamics between the United States and Central America to work so well,” said Mérida.
However, consider that you should expect a few weeks before seeing concrete decisions and constant speculation generates worrying expectations.
Coffee, raw material
Coffee appears as the second product most sent to the United States, referring to the value exported in 2024, for US $ 381.5 million.
In this regard, the National Coffee Association (Anacafé) said that Guatemala and the United States have a complementary and strategic agricultural trade.
“Guatemala maintains a balanced and complementary trade with the United States, since our agricultural exports do not compete with American production, but strengthen it. Products such as coffee are essential in the United States agri -food supply chain, benefiting consumers and companies in the sector ”and consider that agricultural trade is double benefit for both countries, the association indicated through the Communication Office.
Meanwhile, Sergio Mazariegos, Executive Coordinator Committee of Cafes Differentiated from AGEXPORT, does not perceive risk for coffee, and considers that one of the important aspects that the United States of agriculture sees in Guatemala is that it is one of the main sources of work.
In addition, it exposes several factors: the food category has a lot of demand, the FTA is a strength for the market, and within that treaty the coffee entered with zero tariff from the beginning, Guatemala sends a lot of raw material since that country does not produce coffee, but they do process a lot and for its domestic or external market, and it is a segment that in its country generates a lot of wealth or employment for what it does not believe it will be tariff.
“We believe that you are not interested in placing tariffs on this raw material that generates a high relationship of cup wealth,” said Mazariegos.
The manager explained with an example this relationship: in the United States a cup of coffee could cost about US $ 5 in that country, and a pound of 460 grams of roasted coffee 46 cups are produced, that is, 10 grams of coffee powder per cup per cup. So each pound produces US $ 230. In the case of 100 pound coffee, they become 80 pounds of roasted coffee because 20% is water and loses weight, and in this case, they produce for each quintal of coffee it reaches that country generates a wealth of US $ 28 thousand 400.
It should be used, because producing food for the United States is a very good business, its population continues to grow, food and drink will continue to grow, added Mazariegos.
Vegetables
The fresh and dry fruits sector appears as the third export segment at value of US $ 378.3 million and that of legumes and vegetables, with US $ 190.2 million in fifth place, according to data from 2024.
In the fruit and vegetable segment there is concern, said Tulio García, a member of AGEXPORT and executive director of the Cooperativa Cuatro Pinos.
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The manager explained that strategies must be established assuming the worst scenario, but it is still uncertain whether or not there will be tariffs for Guatemala and for what products.
However, he commented that in sources that are developed in the US market, there is already talk of the possibility of tariff is 15%.
If specified, it considers that it will be necessary to negotiate with the buyers to see which part of that can absorb them, in addition that the producing sector will have to improve in terms of productivity and competitiveness in the country to observe how much production and chain costs can be reduced.
Apparently having a FTA will not influence the decision to place a tariff, he added.
“There is a lot of concern, because if it is implemented, and if we do not have the ability to make the settings in that sense we could lose the market,” Garcia said.
He explained that, unlike other products, in the case of vegetables and fruits there is competition not only from other countries but of US producers who are dedicated to these products in some seasons of the year, such as in California, South Carolina and North Carolina.
On the other hand, if the 15%rate is confirmed, as in the environment runs unofficial information would be the possibility of competing with Mexico, for example, to which they have imposed 25%, but they have other advantages such as lower production costs, he mentioned as an example.
What is most exported to the United States are peas, ejotes, broccoli and carrots.
The export vegetable sector represents around 80 thousand jobs, and by adding fruit the 100,000 jobs, he commented
The 15 segments of products that are most exported
The agricultural production sectors that most exported to the United States in 2024, according to data provided by AGEXPORT are:
- Banano with US $ 834.2 million
- Coffee, with US $ 381.5 million
- Fresh, dry or frozen fruits, US $ 378.3 million (among others includes melons, watermelons, papayas)
- Sugar, US $ 191.4 million
- Legumes and vegetables US $ 190.2 million
- US $ 166.6 million banana
- Bean, US $ 83.3 million
- Bulb, roots, ornamental plants US $ 70.6 million
- Tobacco in branch or without elaborating, US $ 29.8 million
- Natural rubber (rubber), US $ 26.7 million
- Tomato, US $ 18.2 million
- Cardamomo, US $ 12.5 million
- Sesame seed, US $ 11.9 million
- Pepper and spices, US $ 3.2 million
- Other plants, seeds and fruits, US $ 1.2 million