In his Interim Perspective Report Published this March 17, the OECD calls Trump – although without appointing it directly – to reduce commercial tensions and the tariffs that you have already imposed and to make its policies more foreseeable for the good of the global economy.
On the hypothesis of the measures that Trump has already officialized, Mexico will take the worst part, with an entry into recession since 2025 and a Contraction of your Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.3 %, which means 2.5 percentage points less than what OECD itself had anticipated in December.
In 2026, Mexico will be again the only country of the G20 (group composed of the most developed and the most emerging countries) in which the activity will descend, 0.6 %, that is 2., 2 points less than what was calculated just three months ago.
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Canada will also be very badly stoppedwith an increase in the activity of 0.7 % both in 2025 and 2026, which results from a correction of the 1.3 points outlook in each year.
US will not get rid of the clash
The reason for the fall of those who have so far been the great United States commercial partners In the North American Free Trade Agreement T-MEC is its great link with that country that will apply a rise of 25 percentage points in import tariffs.
The United States will not get rid of the crash and Your GDP will experience remarkable slowdown Regarding the growth of 2.8 % in 2024, with 2.2 % in 2025 (two tenths less than estimated in December) and 1.6 % in 2026 (five tenths less).
The OECD insists that in those three economies they would win If the tariff climbing and turned to the rules of the T-MEC, especially Mexico. Although he acknowledges that for the United States the improvement would be light, specifically one tenth of growth in 2026, up to 1.7 %.
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In Europe, the direct effect of tariffs That they have already been formalized will be lower, but uncertainty will weigh on the activity, so that the authors of the report have decreased in three tenths the growth they expected in the euro zone for both this year (1 %), and for the next (1.2 %), which would leave the acceleration in the spinal of the acceleration from 0.7 %of 2024.
The Spanish exception
While Germany, Italy and France will see their expectations corrected downwardSpain will be the only one of the great Eurozone partners who will uncheck that trend and whose increase in GDP will double those of these three both in 2025 (2.6 %) and in 2026 (2.1 %).
As for the great emerging economies, its growth in general will slow down both in 2025 and 2026 and that movement symbolizes it the largest of all of them, China, which will go from 5 % in 2024 to 4.8 % in 2025 (a tenth more than what the OECD anticipated in December) and 4.4 % in 2026 (just as three months ago).
The OECD is aware of the Trump’s unpredictability that has threatened more tariffs to its different business partnersand in particular to Europeans and, even without appointing it directly, it emphasizes that the high level of geopolitical uncertainty and current politics makes important risks for projections.
To illustrate it, it has made a simulation in which bilateral tariffs will increase by 10 additional percentage points.
The consequence would be a fall in world production of around 0.3 %with respect to the reference level after three years, which would be particularly strong for Mexico (-1.3 %) but also very significant for the United States (0.7 %) and lower draft for Japan (around -0.4 %), for the euro zone (lower than -0.2 %) and, especially for China (-0.1 %), great rival of Washington.