Guatemala maintains the leading rate of monetary policy interest at 4.50%, The authorities communicated tonight, and the decision was made after carrying out a local and international analysis of different variables.
This despite the fact that the inflationary rhythm was located in February at 1.79% retail than the goal established for this year, as well as a negative intermennsual inflation of -0.25%.
The decision to maintain the indicator was confirmed by Álvaro González Ricci and José Alfredo Blanco Valdés, president and vice president of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), minutes after the meeting of the Monetary Board (JM) held on the night of Wednesday, March 26.
Fundamentals
Central Bank officials stated that the integral analysis of the external and internal economic situation was carried out, as well as knowing the report on the risk balance of inflation, that is prepared by a technical team.
It was mentioned that in the external context the worldwide economic activity that maintains a positive perspective; variables such as the solidity of labor markets, the decrease in inflation, The improvement of the trust of economic agents and a recovery of international trade.
It was announced that the economic perspectives in general terms remain positive despite the high margins of uncertainty and downward risks, associated, above all, to the current protectionist policy of the United States, The persistence of international inflation, the prolongation of geopolitical tensions and problems in the real estate sector of the People’s Republic of China.
Regarding the internal context, it was reported that the majority of the short -term indicators of the economic activity have shown throughout the previous year a dynamism consistent with the estimation of economic growth of 2024 that was 3.7% and He states that by 2025 a better performance is planned with an estimated range between 3% and 5% with a central value of 4%.
The inflationary rhythm last February continued below the lower limit of the goal determined for this year by the JM which is 4% +/- 1 percentage point, as a result, mainly, of the dissipation of inflation pressures due to internal food shocks and the decrease in fuel prices.
They concluded that in the current inflation risk balance suggests that inflationary pressures by 2025 would remain moderate, according to the results of the forecasts and inflation expectations.
The trajectory
May 2022 to date, the leading rate has risen from 1.75% to 5% and then begins to decrease.
- From January to April 2022: 1.75%
- May 2022: 2%
- June 2022: 2.25%
- August 2022: 2.75%
- September 2022: 3%
- November 2022: 3.75
- January 2023: 4.25%
- February 2023: 4.50%
- March 2023: 4.75%
- April 2023: 5%
- May 2023: 5%
- June 2023: 5%
- August 2023: 5%
- September 2023: 5%
- November 2023: 5%
- February 2024: 5%
- March 2024: 5%
- April 2024: 5%
- May 2024: 5%
- June 2024: 5%
- August 2024: 5%
- September 2024: 4.75%
- November 2024: 4.50 %
- February 2025: 4.50%
- March 2025: 4.50%