Vanusia Nogueira, Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization (OIC), based in London, participated in the regional workshop on the new regulation of the European Union and its impact on the Central American Café: Free coffee of deforestation and forest degradation, which was carried out in Guatemala, and provided a perspective on the sector world Tariffs imposed by the United States in prices.
The director exposes the situation of coffee production and consumption on a global scale.
What is the situation of coffee growing worldwide?
I can say that since 2021 very strong climatic problems are being presented in the main producing regions of the world. That year three frosts were presented in Brazil, a drought in Vietnam, heavy rains in Colombia and hurricanes in Central America; Then, a drought and many rains in Brazil.
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So, we have a production that is stable in the last four years.
On the other hand, there is a consumption that is growing, with a very strong entry of the Asian countries, which includes China, but also India, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, and in the Arab countries.
There is high consumption in producing countries, such as Mesoamerica, which in most produced for export, but now has a greater demand, with stable production.
In addition to all climate problems, we still have a price problem that was not so profitable for most producers.
What has changed?
Since October 2023, prices began to rise in the Arabic, but later, due to climatic problems in Vietnam and Indonesia, the robust in Asia was over, so it had to “take” the robust of Brazil, which made the prices of robust and Arabic rise.
That would be explaining the price level at this time, and in February the highest historical (US $ 440.85) was recorded, talking about Commodities and not specialty coffee.
“Since 2021, very strong climatic problems are being presented in the main producing regions of the world. That year three frosts were presented in Brazil, a drought in Vietnam, heavy rains in Colombia and hurricanes in Central America; later, a drought and many rains in Brazil”
Vanusia Nogueira, Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization (OIC)
In the midst of all this, it was possible to pay producers more, and this increase to consumers did not move.
At the end of last year, the toasters began to pass the increase to consumers, and depending on the country, 30%has been transferred, but it depends a lot on volume and chain.
The whole chain was pressed when the threat of tariffs in the US began.
On that subject, what position do they have?
We are in direct contact with the US Government, and they have been explained that they must think in terms of products, because it does not occur in large quantities in the US territory, and the strategy of blocking the entrance and assessing the national product in grain makes no sense because they do not have it to maintain local consumption.
Then, putting coffee rates is to put more costs to the raw material and increase American consumer prices, and have been explained.
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Given these scenarios, what position did they tell them?
The idea of the United States is to follow bilateral agreements and negotiations with each country, and great negotiations that involve the main grain producing countries were not achieved, so we hope to see it.
The American industry is also worried, and in the main coffee producing countries, when tariffs are launched, the group is 10%. This is looking for this to reach zero percent.
The sector, how would it adapt to these conditions?
The industry sees that it is changing every day, so you have to be attentive, and the US must clarify a lot about the product that is in transit: whether it applies or not apply, and how, and some procedures are not yet defined for American industrialists either.
If you have to pay 10% of the tariff, how it will be transferred to consumers. And what we have seen in the last 18 months is that he has moved to the consumer. No decrease in coffee consumption is not being perceived worldwide.
People are changing coffee they drink, and instead of going to a Coffee shopbuy in the supermarket, or people, as in London, instead of going for a cup of coffee in an establishment, they acquire a package to grind at home, because the price of a cup is equivalent to that of the package, which is enough to consume at home with their family.
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What is the worldwide inventory level?
Coffee inventories are low because there is stable production and high consumption. In Brazil there had never been a low inventory, and for harvest 2025-2026, which begins now, it is indicated that there would be a 2.3% decrease in relation to last year. In spite of this, a production of 56 million quintals of coffee is expected, which is the official estimate.
In Brazil, a heat wave affected this incredible summer, and fruits matured very fast, with a smaller grain.
The production of Colombia and Honduras will be a little better; In Vietnam, more or less stable. It is still very premature to give a production forecast for the next harvest.