Some shops, this week, opened with discounts activities in several product categories. The objective is to attract consumers who, with bonus 14, already plan their purchases of appliances, technology, vehicles and new items. Next month, employers must comply with the extraordinary pay of half a year, a benefit received by workers in the formal sector, and that, for the Guatemalan Chamber of Commerce (CCG), is an important liquidity injection for the economy, as it stimulates consumption.
However, the uncertainty for the tariff and migratory policies of President Donald Trump in the US, this year, could slow down the dynamism of the economy and more expensive prices in the local market. May was a good month of sales. In July – by the bonus – there are always promotions, and people spend more than on dates such as the end of the year, when they prefer to reserve the bonus for the expenses of family dinners, acquisition of clothing and payment of school expenses, explains one of the customer service managers in an electronic articles trade.
He adds that suppliers have difficulty anticipating the costs that are transferred to the price, due to the uncertainty of tariffs. In some cases, they are encouraged to anticipate increases between 10% and 15% in prices. The CCG states that some Guatemalan companies that are part of international value chains or import US supplies. UU. They report “a certain level of uncertainty and possible effects”, following changes in the customs policy of the current US government.
Although the impact on the country is not widespread, any variation in import rates or foreign trade measures that apply EE. UU. They can influence production costs, final prices and competitiveness of our exports and imports, explains the aforementioned Chamber.
The Bank of Guatemala is preparing
According to Álvaro González Ricci, president of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), for this year the increase in monetary issuance is calculated in Q2 thousand 500 million in order to meet the additional demand for cash associated with the payment of the bonus 14. The payment period includes from the last week of June to the third of July. The CCG foresees a growth in sales of between 10% and 15% in sectors of mass consumption – food and supermarkets, costumes and footwear -, as a result of personal and family purchases; in technology and appliances, especially for the promotions associated with Bonus 14, and in recreation and restaurants that have greater influx of customers.
Bonus 14 is received by workers in the formal sector, which – according to 2023 data published by the National Statistics Institute (INE) – represent 29.7% of the employed population (6.6 million). Experts affirm that the effect of bonus 14 on monthly sales is observed in the behavior of value -added tax (VAT), and said benefit raises the possibility that there is greater liquidity in homes; Consequently, companies see the opportunity to offer promotions.
Fredy Ortiz, psychologist of the Guatemalan League of Mental Hygiene, recalls that this is a benefit with which not all workers tell, and from that approach impacts on the emotions and mental health of those who do not have are perceived. On the other hand, this benefit can be the cause of emotional discomfort for those who receive it, if they fall into impulsive purchases, Ortiz explains.
When buying, Guatemalan consumers consider the level of their income and indebtedness – more than half of households pay a debt – unforeseen expenses and aspirational concepts, according to the report “The Guatemalan shopper becomes more economical”, by Datalab PL, prepared by means of the Data Scientie Goo platform.
“We live in a society where consumerism is present”, Note Ortiz, by attributing to the culture of consumption the “emotional purchases” that makes a large percentage of the population. Another aspect that highlights the professional is the attempt to achieve a standard of living that is considered good, which induces the consumer to impulsive expenses to achieve social status, even if it exceeds the income received.
Impulsive purchases also occur due to the need of some people to have a constant valuation, which are summarized in “having to assert”, a sociocultural phenomenon in which people do not see the price, but the result and the sensation that provides them – despite the fact that it is a single time – to appear or look good with someone. These factors, according to the psychologist, deepen the problems of self -esteem and concern about indebtedness that cause anxiety, emotional tension, stress and isolation.
Beyond consumption
Datalab PL says that today’s consumers find an ally in technology and electronic applications, to reduce and manage their expenses. In this regard, the CCG asserts: “We see a more hybrid consumer; consult and compare online, but still values the face -to -face experience. The companies that show best performance are those that have managed to integrate both channels, efficiently, because they offer a solid omnicanal experience.”
Not all buyers are “emotional.” There are a group of people who are rational in their purchase decisions, that is, they have established mental health and avoid the social pressure to consume, so they invest money in their life project, adds Ortiz. For its part, the president of the Banguat shows that Bonus 14 can be used in building a stronger financial base for the future.
“In addition to immediate consumption, workers have alternatives to use it strategically,” in options such as debt amortization, investment in productive assets – such as education, house improvements, starting a venture or scheduled savings, “he says. In the last May, year -on -year inflation was 1.69% and, according to the INE, prices accelerated compared to April, and the main increases were recorded in items such as food, housing, restaurants and health.
Due to inflation, the goods become more expensive and the salary deteriorates, since it does not grow at the same rate as prices, says Enrique Laces, consultant in international trade and former Minister of Economy. “There is a lag between price increase and the adjustment of people’s income,” he says. One of the factors that influences prices is that Guatemala imports several of the consumer products, mainly from the US, Central America, China and Mexico. In the Foreign Trade Report of the Closing of 2024, published by the Ministry of Economy (Mineco), there was an amount of US $ 32 thousand 489 million of the imports made.
From the US, fuels, machines and electrotechnical devices, corn, cotton and wheat, among other goods, are imported. This increases the uncertainty derived from Trump’s tariff measures. LACS considers the possibility that, when buying products from an American company, the impact on sales prices, depending on the type of product in question, will be between 5% to 15% higher, since the northern country also depends on products that matter from other nations.
González Ricci says that, until last April, there was no evidence of changes in prices – of imported products – that can be attributed to tariff policies. “However, the persistent uncertainty of the external environment, particularly that associated with changes in the commercial policy of some of the main economies, does represent a latent risk of imported inflation pressures,” he clarifies.