Family remittances sent by Guatemalan migrants, especially from the United States, and loans in dollars from the private sector were the main causes of the increase in operations registered in the exchange balance in 2025.
The central bank updated the figures of the annual exchange balance, in which it indicates that, last year, there was a positive balance of US$5.9 billion, which constitutes a historic figure.
The exchange balance records the entry and exit of foreign currency. In purchases, the amount was US$77 thousand 32 million, and in sales US$71 thousand 131 million were recorded. The difference was US$5.9 billion last year; That is, it is a positive balance.
The balance records purchasing operations such as exports, transportation, tourism and travel, transfers and donations (where remittances are recorded), investments and loans.
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In addition, sales include imports, transportation, government services, tourism and travel and investments, among others.
Exchange balance grows 420% in 2025
The result for 2025 is 420% higher than that of 2024, when the balance reached US$1,134 million, as well as compared to the US$344 million in 2023. Only in 2022 was the balance negative, with -US$180 million; In 2021 it was US$676 million, and in 2020 it stood at US$1,509 million.
The highest amount in the series was recorded in 2013, when it reached US$3,187 million.
Remittances and external debt drive flow
From the structure observed in 2025, from the exchange balance, US$26,312 million, that is, 34.2%, They correspond to family remittances (registered as transfers and donations), and are greater than the US$22,345 million in 2024.
That is, there is a year-on-year growth of 17.7% in that concept alone.
Family remittances grew 18.7% in 2025 and stood at US$25,530 million.
For exports, the amount registered was US$11,450 million, which represents 14.9% of the structure, and foreign exchange from tourism and travel totaled US$1,247 million, with a participation of 1.8%.
It is striking that, in the private sector loan segment, the amount of foreign currency that entered was US$29,144 million (in purchases), greater than the US$24,621 million in 2024, which represents an increase of 18.3%.
Of the structure observed in 2025, of the exchange balance, US$26,312 million, that is, 34.2%, correspond to family remittances (registered as transfers and donations), and is greater than the US$22,345 million in 2024.
This means that there is debt abroad in dollars and may be due to the fact that there are lower interest rates, which is more convenient and conducive to carrying out international operations.
Reserves grow due to exchange surplus
The figures show that, in 2025, foreign exchange inflows were greater than outflows by US$5.9 billion, reflecting a positive exchange balance. This surplus is used to increase international monetary reserves (RMI).explained economist Érick Coyoy, analyst at the Association for Research and Social Studies (Asies).
The RMIs are administered by the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) and constitute the resources available to finance payments in dollars abroad, he noted.
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“This favorable balance in 2025 allowed a strong increase in the RMI at the end of last year,” he added.
A positive exchange balance has a favorable effect on the behavior of the exchange rate, that is, on the price of the currency. By existing greater supply of dollars, Its stability is fostered, stated the Asíes consultant.
He clarified that a negative exchange balance would have the opposite effect on the exchange rate, since it would imply more dollar outflows than foreign currency inflows, which would generate upward pressure.
“Guatemala does not have this experience in recent years, but neighboring countries do have this effect on the exchange rate, which goes up because there is more demand than supply of foreign currency. In Guatemala the opposite has happened, due to factors such as remittances and loans from the private sector,” he pointed out.
He added that, in the first two months of 2026, Remittances are no longer growing at the expected rate. The 5.8% growth observed now, compared to 21.5% in 2025, “is already losing dynamism, associated with immigration policy in the United States, and therefore it is possible that this year a very favorable balance will not be observed in the exchange balance, although it is not expected to be negative.”
Likewise, exports are registering a positive performance and dynamism is expected in private capital movements.
Demand and currencies keep the exchange rate stable
Recently, the vice president of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), Alfredo Blanco Valdés, when asked about the behavior of the exchange rate in the market and the international situation, declared that Initial estimates remain stable.
At the same time, the flow of imports and demand, with adequate growth, allow exchange stability.